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Understanding the attack on israel from lebanon | Avi Melamed joins ABC Australia.
Guest:
Avi Melamed, Israeli author, educator, and independent Middle East strategic intelligence analyst
(00:00) Israel has renewed ground operations in Rafa, specifically in the eastern outskirts near the Gaza-Egypt border. (00:37) This operation appears to be a more confined military move, part of a potential multi-stage plan to increase pressure on Hamas. It’s described as a “rolling [__] kidding an expanded ground operation,” not a massive invasion. (01:45) Avi Melamed believes that increased pressure alone won’t necessarily lead to the release of all hostages, as Hamas’s main leverage is the hostages, and they seemingly don’t intend to end the conflict or release them all. (02:16) Both Hamas (seeking to maintain rule) and Israel (vowing to eliminate Hamas rule) are locked in a situation making the release of all hostages unlikely at this point. (02:30) Regarding the situation on the Lebanon-Israel border, Israel fired missiles into southern Lebanon in retaliation for missiles fired into Israel. Hezbollah denies involvement. (02:55) The Lebanese Prime Minister stated that the decision for war rests with the state, not Hezbollah. However, historically, Hezbollah has dictated war and peace in Lebanon against the will of many Lebanese. (03:24) The Lebanese state is in the early stages of trying to regain sovereignty “stolen” by Hezbollah, a long and difficult process. (03:55) A major challenge is Hezbollah’s continued military capabilities and refusal to disarm, similar to the situation with Hamas. This makes it difficult for Lebanon to restore its sovereignty. (04:25) Beyond Hezbollah, Palestinian militias also exist in Lebanon, and weapon ownership is common, creating a situation where non-state actors operate parallel to and defy the state’s authority. (04:56) Restoring Lebanese sovereignty requires disarming these non-state actors and fostering a cultural shift away from widespread personal weapon ownership.
Australia’s home for the best coverage of the biggest breaking news events with specialised analysis of politics, business and sport and agenda-setting interviews with some of the world’s leading experts, and changemakers.
Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas. He is the author of “Inside The Middle East | Entering A New Era,” and his latest docuseries, “The Seam Line,” available on the Izzy streaming platform, focuses on Jerusalem’s flashpoints and his work during the intifadas.
If you want to have a better understanding of the news and what really drives the unfolding events… Read the latest book of Avi Melamed,
INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST | ENTERING A NEW ERA, available now >>>
Follow me on Twitter @AviMelamed; Facebook @InsideTheMiddleEast; for more Videos on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/AviMelamed
I can always be reached at Av*@Av********.com