Iran Nuclear Program “It’s a Set Back, It’s not Destroyed” | ILTV

Iran Nuclear Program “It’s a Set Back, It’s not Destroyed” | Avi Melamed’s interview by Maayan Hoffman, executive editor of ILTV News.

Here’s a summary of the ILTV News podcast interview with Avi Malamid (timestamps included):

• 00:00–00:39 – Avi Malamid is introduced as a Middle East geopolitical expert, highlighting his analysis that recent Israeli strikes have significantly set back—but not destroyed—Iran’s nuclear program—impacting both infrastructure and key scientific personnel.
• 00:39–01:16 – The damage is considered strategic: while Iran’s nuclear capacity remains, the physical infrastructure was hit and several core scientists were reportedly eliminated.
• 01:16–02:26 – Despite a potential ceasefire, Malamid believes Iran continues seeking nuclear advancement and strengthening militias. He warns against assuming long-term de-escalation under the current regime.
• 02:26–03:36 – Even if Iran returns to negotiations (e.g. with the U.S. under Trump-era demands), Malamid warns Iran has repeatedly reneged on agreements. He asserts that robust enforcement mechanisms will be essential to prevent future violations.
• 03:36–06:37 – Internal instability risks for Iran include power struggles post-Khamenei, worsening economic and social challenges, rising public discontent, and renewed regional unrest (in Balochistan, Khuzestan, Kurdistan)—all potentially triggering major “aftershock” pressures on the regime.
• 07:18–09:55 – China and Russia’s roles are characterized as pragmatic “marriages of convenience”—supporting Iran when beneficial but unlikely to fully defend Tehran if doing so jeopardizes their interests.
• 10:33–13:50 – October 7 and subsequent Israeli actions have undermined Iran’s proxy-based regional strategy (“triangle” of proxies, nuclear, missile/drone programs), signaling the end of a multi-decade expansionist chapter.
• 14:59–17:26 – Looking beyond the horizon, Malamid anticipates a new regional phase, anchored by Israel emerging as a regional superpower and possible normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and deeper Arab engagement in Palestinian affairs.
• 19:10–23:24 – Israel’s successful strikes have shifted regional perceptions—raising its strategic value to Arab states and potentially hastening normalization agreements. The weakening of semi-state entities like Hezbollah and Hamas may enable state sovereignty in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria.
• 24:29–26:24 – With Iran and its proxies weakened, Palestinian politics may shift: new leadership could emerge more aligned with broader Arab normalization efforts, though “resistance” sentiment will remain a contested internal theme.
• 27:02–29:37 – In Israel, current ultranationalist and polarized government dominance may decline in future elections, potentially paving the way for a more centrist administration—creating better conditions for incremental Israeli–Palestinian arrangements within a supportive regional framework.

Iran Nuclear Program “It’s a Set Back, It’s not Destroyed” | Avi Melamed’s interview by Maayan Hoffman, executive editor of ILTV News.

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