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Gaza Begins To Reopen to the World, Testing Israel’s Postwar Strategy | THE MEDIA LINE | Find Avi Melamed’s insights quoted by Waseem Abu Mahadi in this article for the THE MEDIA LINE.
Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, say they will not release billions in rebuilding aid until Hamas disarms and enforceable security guarantees are in place
The metal gates of the Rafah crossing swung open Monday morning for the first time in nearly two years. But just five medical patients and their companions, along with just over a dozen others who made it through that first day, were a stark illustration of how far the Gaza ceasefire remains from delivering on its promises.
Families camped overnight in the cold outside the crossing, waiting through hours-long Israeli and Egyptian biometric security screenings. Ambulances lined up on both sides of the border, shuttling critical medical cases through checkpoints where European Union monitors supervised the processing. On the Egyptian side, aid staging areas sat empty. Humanitarian workers described confusion about coordination and next steps.
The slow processing and stringent security protocols reflect broader tensions. But the real battle isn’t about border crossings. It’s about weapons.
President Donald Trump insists Hamas will disarm “because they have no choice.” His special envoy Steve Witkoff says the group “will give up their AK-47s.” Senior Hamas officials say that conversation never happened.
Our priority has always been stopping the war and protecting civilians, not negotiating away weapons
“Our priority has always been stopping the war and protecting civilians, not negotiating away weapons,” senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzook told Al Jazeera last week. US proposals ranging from freezing arms to full disarmament were discussed in theory, he said, but never became part of formal negotiations.
That disconnect now hangs over everything labeled “phase two”: reconstruction, governance, and long-term security. Phase two effectively came into focus last week with the return of the final Israeli hostage’s remains. What happens next, however, is still unclear.
No international force has been deployed to Gaza to collect or verify weapons. No mechanism exists to enforce disarmament. More than two dozen countries participate in coordination meetings about Gaza’s future. None has committed troops.
Phase Two has been announced, but in reality, it has not begun because Hamas rejects several core elements, and no one is forcing compliance. … The announcement was premature. It reflected diplomatic optimism rather than facts on the ground.
“Phase Two has been announced, but in reality, it has not begun because Hamas rejects several core elements, and no one is forcing compliance,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who previously coordinated the UN Security Council’s monitoring team for Islamic State and al-Qaeda, told The Media Line. “The announcement was premature. It reflected diplomatic optimism rather than facts on the ground.”
“Israel cannot demilitarize Hamas on its own, especially in areas where Israeli forces are no longer present,” Fitton-Brown said. “Enforced disarmament would require a transitional authority backed by an international stabilization force.”
“Without a monopoly on coercion, there is no government,” Fitton-Brown said. “If Hamas retains weapons and organized armed units, it retains power regardless of what administrative structures exist on paper.”
Getting countries to commit forces has proven impossible. Egypt has ruled out deploying troops inside Gaza. European countries will support governance structures but not provide combat forces. Turkey supports Hamas politically. Gulf states that might fund reconstruction won’t commit forces.
“Many countries want their flag present but not their soldiers at risk,” Fitton-Brown said. “That defeats the purpose.”
Many countries want their flag present but not their soldiers at risk. That defeats the purpose.
Israel will not compromise on demilitarization. “The Israeli government has made it very clear that it will not compromise on the demilitarization of Hamas,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and founder of Inside the Middle East, told The Media Line. “This is not only the position of the current government. Any Israeli government would demand the dismantling of Hamas’s military capabilities.”
At the same time, Melamed said Israel does not expect Hamas to voluntarily disarm. “Nobody has any illusion that Hamas is going to disarm itself,” he said. “Demilitarization is not about removing every weapon. It is mainly about offensive weapons — rockets and advanced arms that can be used against Israeli territory. Israel’s priority is to eliminate Hamas’s ability to manufacture rockets and dismantle its command structure.”
But even that limited definition creates a practical dilemma. Achieving it would require renewed Israeli military operations, which would undermine the ceasefire, or the deployment of an external force willing to confront Hamas directly. Neither currently exists, short of renewed Israeli military action that would likely collapse the ceasefire.
Hamas is pressing to include its roughly 10,000-strong police force in the new governance architecture. According to multiple sources, Hamas has urged its civil and security personnel to cooperate with the US-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza while seeking to have its police formally incorporated. Israel has rejected the proposal. The force is inseparable from Hamas’s broader security apparatus, Israeli officials argue.
An internal Hamas document obtained by Israeli broadcaster Kan reveals the group’s strategy for maintaining control while appearing to cooperate. The directive tells administrators to maintain normal work routines while prohibiting them from attacking members of the new technocratic government on social media. The key instruction: “No personal contact should be made, or information and news should be passed to them except through the relevant authority.” Hamas itself retains control over all communication channels.
Israeli military intelligence assessments delivered to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warn that Hamas continues deepening its governance structures and taking concrete steps to preserve influence by integrating members into government ministries and the security apparatus, according to Israeli officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Hamas does not want to openly reject the peace plan because doing so would provoke a decisive response from Washington and potentially from Israel. Instead, Hamas signals conditional cooperation while avoiding real compliance.
“Hamas does not want to openly reject the peace plan because doing so would provoke a decisive response from Washington and potentially from Israel,” Fitton-Brown said. “Instead, Hamas signals conditional cooperation while avoiding real compliance.”
The terror group’s messaging has been deliberately contradictory. Some figures say openly they will never disarm. Others suggest weapons might be placed in storage, a freeze rather than surrender. That reflected a tactical debate within Hamas, not a genuine willingness to disarm.
Hamas officials have blamed ongoing Israeli military operations for blocking the technocratic committee from functioning, arguing the group’s priority is enabling the independent national committee to assume responsibilities in Gaza.
Israeli officials see this as confirmation that Hamas plans to maintain organized armed forces under a new administrative label.
Assessing Hamas’ remaining capabilities is difficult. Before October 2023, Israeli and American officials estimated Hamas possessed between 15,000 and 30,000 rockets, along with large stockpiles of small arms, anti-tank weapons, drones, and an extensive tunnel network. Israeli officials now say most capabilities have been destroyed or degraded, but acknowledge Hamas retains residual weapons, substantial underground infrastructure, and organized armed cells capable of limited attacks.
“In the current context, rapid or forced disarmament is unrealistic and would require coordination with Hamas and a gradual process,” Adel al-Ghoul, a Palestinian political analyst and head of the Paris Center for Security Studies and International Relations, told The Media Line. “The approach most widely discussed internationally is not disarmament by force, but the gradual containment and neutralization of weapons through stronger Palestinian security institutions, improved economic conditions, and incentives for stability over chaos.”
The crossing reopening offered a glimpse of limited progress. Young men and elderly Palestinians waiting in line spoke of relief mixed with frustration. Glad to see any movement after nearly two years. Angry at how marginal the flows remain.
Meanwhile, on-the-ground recovery proceeds incrementally. The UN Development Program has cleared approximately 50,000 tons of rubble since the ceasefire began in October, including at a new Khan Yunis crushing facility processing roughly 1,000 tons daily. But UN estimates suggest Gaza contains more than 40 million tons of debris that will take years to remove.
Broader reconstruction remains stalled. A postwar redevelopment proposal promoted by Jared Kushner and unveiled at Davos last month envisions up to 100,000 housing units in a rebuilt “New Rafah,” along with schools, hospitals, and commercial zones. The plan explicitly conditions large-scale construction on verified Hamas disarmament.
The United States has not committed funding for large-scale reconstruction. Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, say they will not release billions in rebuilding aid until Hamas disarms and enforceable security guarantees are in place. Requirements that have not yet been clearly defined or implemented.
Israeli airstrikes continue across Gaza despite the ceasefire. Health officials say more than 500 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began last October. Israel says the strikes target Hamas military operatives and weapons infrastructure.
Discussions about deploying international forces continue but remain entirely preliminary. No country has offered concrete troop commitments. The technocratic committee tasked with governing Gaza has been announced but has not yet begun to function in any meaningful way.
“Hamas still maintains social and organizational influence on the ground, even where its military role has declined,” al-Ghoul said. “Any new administration would have to rely on indirect coordination or avoid direct confrontation.”
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