Could Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon bring lasting peace? | METRO VOICE

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

Could Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon bring lasting peace? | Avi Melamed quoted Dwight Widaman, in the article For Metro Voice. November 26, 2024

This story was edited to reflect the ceasefire went into effect.

Dwight Widaman is editor of Metro Voice and founder of VisionIsrael.org, an educational nonprofit working to end antisemitism on college campuses and beyond.


A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could be announced as early as Tuesday evening. For Israelis, it offers a glimmer of hope that they could return to their homes. For Lebanese, it could signal the weakening of the Hezbollah terrorist group which retains a firm grip on much of the former French colony.

Others are not so optimistic, warning that the agreement will not hold, punching the region again into turmoil. The proposal outlines a 60-day gradual pullback of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon from which Hezbollah has been firing missiles into northern Israel and building tunnels in anticipation of a Oct. 7-style attack on the Jewish state. The plan’s success relies heavily on trusting Hezbollah to disarm and expectation of a weak Lebanese central government to maintain control over Hezbollah with its nominal military.

Avi Melamed is a seasoned Israeli intelligence expert in demand by news outlets and Middle East think tank discussions. He believes the ceasefire’s durability depends on the Lebanese government’s capacity to genuinely regain control over the terrorist forces of Hezbollah and the cessation of shipments of Iranian arms into the country via Syria. He cautions, “It is clear that Iran and Hezbollah will use this period following Israel’s withdrawal to replenish their stockpiles and restore Hezbollah’s military capabilities in southern Lebanon.”

Melamed draws parallels with the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, suggesting that the Lebanese military and the United Nations might lack the resolve or capability to directly challenge Hezbollah, potentially enabling the group to entrench itself without opposition.

“Both the Lebanese army and UNIFIL are either unable or unwilling to confront Iran and Hezbollah directly, allowing them to fortify their positions unchallenged,” he states.

In fact, the expected agreement looks similar to the 2006 agreement which the UN never fully implemented, he cautions. Since then, the UN and its peacekeepers have turned a blind eye to the activities of Hezbollah and its terrorist partners.

The international community, especially France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will play a crucial role in bolstering Lebanese nationalists as they strive for dominance over the country’s broken political landscape. Melamed asserts that strengthening these groups is the only realistic route to sustainable peace with the dissolution of Hezbollah as a primary political force in the country.

The October 7 attack is a horrific example of the grave danger that Iran and its proxies pose, and Israel is likely to act decisively to protect its citizens from any renewed threat from Hezbollah and its financier, Iran.

In fact, Netanyahu said in a televised speech Tuesday that the success of a ceasefire would “depend on what happens in Lebanon.” He promised that Israel would resume attacking Hezbollah if it violated the agreement by rearming, digging more tunnels, launching missiles at Israeli cities, or rebuilding its terrorist infrastructure in Southern Lebanon.

The ceasefire could bring immediate, if only temporary, relief and the lasting impact is unclear as Israel continues to root out Hamas from Gaza. News outlets report that the Biden administration, Israeli lawmakers and other world leaders are in ongoing discussions about the agreement, with some voicing apprehensions about Hezbollah possibly remaining in power. possible future. Others, such as Avigdor Liberman, the leader of Yisrael Beytenu, contend that Israel should retain control over southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains a menace.

With Israel still in a virtual state of war with Iran and Yemen, the Lebanese government reasserting control over the country will be helpful. One thing is clear, however, for enduring peace, Hezbollah and its partner Hamas in Gaza, must never be allowed to again rearm.

If they do, everyone suffers…again.


Could Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon bring lasting peace? | Avi Melamed quoted Dwight Widaman, in the article For Metro Voice. November 26, 2024

If you want to have a better understanding of the news and what really drives the unfolding events…
Read the latest book of Avi Melamed,
INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST | ENTERING A NEW ERA, available now >>>

Follow me on Twitter @AviMelamed; Facebook @InsideTheMiddleEast; for more Videos on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/AviMelamed

I can always be reached at Av*@Av********.com

Avi Melamed
Avi Melamedhttps://insidethemiddle-east.com
Avi Melamed is an expert on current affairs in the Arab & Muslim World and their impact on Israel & the Middle East. A former Israeli Intelligence Official & Senior Official on Arab Affairs, Fluent in Arabic, English, and Hebrew, he has held high-risk Government, Senior Advisory, Intelligence & Counter-Terrorist intelligence positions in Arab cities & communities - often in very sensitive times - on behalf of Israeli Government agencies. He is the Founder & CEO of Inside the Middle East | Intelligence Perspectives - an apolitical non-partisan curriculum using intelligence methodology to examine the Middle East. As an Author, Educator, Expert, and Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Avi provides Intelligence Analysis, Briefings, and Geopolitical Tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policymakers, global media outlets, and a wide variety of international businesses, organizations, and private clients on a range of Israel and Middle East Affairs.

JOIN THE HUB Newsletter

BUY THE BOOK

New book by Avi Melamed, acclaimed intelligence & geopolitical analyst - Inside the middle east | Entering a new era | published in 2022

MORE FROM ITME

Former IDF intelligence official visits St. Louis | St LOUIS JEWISH LIGHT

Former IDF intelligence official visits St. Louis | Article by Bill Motchan for the St LOUIS JEWISH LIGHT | February 29, 2024. Former IDF...

Pay Close Attention to Growing Popularity of Lion’s Den Terror Group | THE JEWISH PRESS

Avi Melamed’s Insight about the Lion’s Den terror group continues to be quoted. Read the article in the JewishPress by Hana Levi Julian -...

Hamas ‘softening’ demands amid negotiations | FOX LiveNOW

Hamas 'softening' demands amid negotiations | Former Israeli intelligence official, Avi Melamed spoke with LiveNOW from FOX's Josh Breslow on the Israeli offensive. |...

Consensus Among Israelis ‘That the War Should Continue’ Until Hamas Defeated: Analyst | NTD NEWS

Consensus Among Israelis ‘That the War Should Continue’ Until Hamas Defeated: Analyst | By Evelyn Li with Avi Melamed | January 22, 2024 NTD...

A Realistic Solution To The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict | Forbes

A Realistic Solution To The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict | Here is our article published in Forbes…. A generation has passed since the signing of the Oslo...