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Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah Start Ceasefire After Nearly 14 Months of Fighting | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by The New York Sun.
A former Israeli intelligence official, Avi Melamed, stated that “Iran and Hezbollah are expected to make efforts to reassert their control over Lebanon as soon as possible,” adding that “a significant concern is the continued shipment of arms from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Reports suggest that under an understanding between Israel and the United States, Israel will work to intercept these shipments, particularly those crossing from Syria into Lebanon before they reach Syria.”
Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah terrorists began a ceasefire Wednesday in a major step toward ending nearly 14 months of fighting. The 60-day ceasefire took effect Wednesday at 4 a.m. Tel Aviv time. It interrupts a war that Hezbollah started on October 8, 2023, the day after Hamas in Gaza attacked communities in southern Israel.
As of Wednesday morning no immediate violations were reported of the agreement, which was negotiated by America and passed in Israel’s Security Cabinet with ten in favor and one against. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said that Israel appreciated the American efforts in securing the deal but “reserves the right to act against every threat to its security.”
Israel has said it will attack if Hezbollah breaks the agreement, and an Israeli military spokesman, in an Arabic-language X post in the first half-hour of the ceasefire, warned evacuated residents of southern Lebanon to not head home yet, saying the military remained deployed there.
Separately, the Agence France-Presse reported that Hamas has now indicated that the terrorist group is “ready for a ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange deal” and has been in contact with mediators in Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. While Wednesday’s ceasefire does not call for the breakup of Hezbollah, it does essentially proscribe the group from operating in southern Lebanon.
The 13 points of the ceasefire agreement, as first reported by Ynet and other Middle East sources, are as follows:
- Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanese territory will not carry out any offensive action against Israel.
- Israel will not carry out any offensive military action against targets in Lebanon, including on the ground, in the air, and at sea.
- Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of Resolution 1701 of the UN Security Council, which calls for the withdrawal of Hezbollah and other forces from Lebanon south of the Litani River.
- These commitments do not negate the right of Israel and Lebanon to self-defense.
- The official Lebanese security forces and army will be the only armed entities that will be allowed to carry weapons or operate their forces in southern Lebanon.
- Any sale, supply and production of weapons or materials related to weapons to Lebanon will be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese government.
- All unauthorized facilities for the production of weapons and materials related to weapons will be dismantled.
- All military infrastructure and bases will be dismantled, and all weapons without a permit that do not comply with these obligations will be confiscated.
- A committee will be established that will be acceptable to Israel and Lebanon to oversee and assist in ensuring the enforcement of these commitments.
- Israel and Lebanon will submit reports on any expected violations of these commitments to the committee and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.
- Lebanon will deploy its official security forces and military forces along all borders, crossing points and the line that defines southern Lebanon, as shown in the deployment plan.
- Israel will gradually withdraw south of the Blue Line within 60 days.
- America will promote indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to reach a recognized land border.
In addition, a number of American guarantees are made to Israel. For example, Israel and America will share intelligence concerning violations, including any infiltration by Hezbollah into the Lebanese army.
In addition, Israeli flights over Lebanon will be conducted for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance purposes only and will not break the sound barrier.
Also, America is committed to cooperating with Israel to curb Iran’s destabilizing activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons, affiliates, and others from Iranian territory.
Ahead of the ceasefire taking effect, President Biden said that he just spoke with the prime ministers of Israel and Lebanon and was pleased to announce “that their governments have accepted the United States’ proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah fire has forced some 50,000 Israelis to evacuate in the country’s north, and its rockets have reached as far south in Israel as Tel Aviv. At least 75 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians. More than 50 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive in Lebanon.
The break in fighting will be welcomed by many, but any ceasefire is fragile almost by definition — so is Lebanon, the sovereignty of which has been hollowed out over the years by Iran and its Hezbollah proxy. Even the elimination of its firebrand leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the current ceasefire will not change that.
A former Israeli intelligence official, Avi Melamed, stated that “Iran and Hezbollah are expected to make efforts to reassert their control over Lebanon as soon as possible,” adding that “a significant concern is the continued shipment of arms from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Reports suggest that under an understanding between Israel and the United States, Israel will work to intercept these shipments, particularly those crossing from Syria into Lebanon before they reach Syria.”
Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah Start Ceasefire After Nearly 14 Months of Fighting | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by The New York Sun.
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