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Trump inherits fragile Gaza ceasefire | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by Brad Dress, originally published in The Hill |
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, said the agreement was an “initial, fragile step in a complex and volatile process,” predicting tensions around hostage and prisoner exchanges.
“Both sides will likely face significant internal pressures to advance to the next phase, even as the risk of hostilities reigniting remains high,” he said in an email. “Both Israel and Hamas will maintain military presence in Gaza throughout the first phase of the agreement, leaving open the strong possibility that fighting could resume.”
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, expected to begin its first phase Sunday, has brought relief to the international community but questions about whether the truce will hold — an issue that President-elect Trump will have to oversee when he takes office next week.
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a fragile three-phase agreement to return hostages and prisoners, and establish a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
Trump, who took credit for the ceasefire deal, as did President Biden, appears to have wanted to take office with the conflict behind him, but he will now have to manage the details of a tense pact that could take months to resolve. He will also have to work closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a complicated domestic situation in Israel.
John Hannah, senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said Trump may have to take interest in fully implementing the plan.
“Now he inherits the deal, which has still yet to be executed and implemented in all its different phases, and so my guess is he’s going to now be invested in seeing this deal succeed all the way through Phase 2,” Hannah said in a Thursday webinar. “He’s not going to want to see a restart of this war on his watch.”
Trump could also be persuaded to show interest if it’s tied to an incentive, such as Israel normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, a process that was halted by the war and would be a huge diplomatic success for his administration.
“If this gets wrapped into broader normalization, then there’s a possibility that he will maintain interest,” said Osamah Khalil, chair of the international relations program at Syracuse University. “But if it doesn’t look like the Saudis are going to move forward, or that the price is too high for them to put significant pressure on Netanyahu, then you can see him losing interest.”
The outgoing Biden administration is hoping that Trump will continue the work done this week and in November, when a similar fragile ceasefire was reached with Hamas ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that the Trump administration must ensure there is a lasting peace in the region.
“For the incoming administration, I think it will be important to continue to show here is one path, and what can be achieved by following that path, and then there’s another, which is perpetual violence, destruction, terrorism, despair for people,” he said in his final press conference.
“That’s the choice. I think we’ve now put in place and done the work that, handing it off, can be used to build a strong foundation and move down that much more positive path.”
The deal was confirmed by Netanyahu’s full Cabinet late Friday.
The agreement comes after 15 months of brutal fighting between Israel and Hamas, sparked by the Palestinian militant group’s deadly attacks on southern Israel that killed some 1,200 people and took around 250 hostages.
Since then, more than 46,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, according to the health ministry, and much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Palestinians in Gaza are also struggling with a humanitarian aid crisis.
Democrats with concerns about the toll of the war on Gaza have urged all parties to uphold the agreement and are likely to try to pressure Trump to see the agreement through.
Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, had serious concerns about the ceasefire holding.
“I sincerely hope that it does,” he said. “The U.S. must work very hard to make sure that it does.”
Trump’s Republican allies are equally cautious about any ceasefire lasting.
“As Reagan said, trust but verify,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), former chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “There’s some cautious optimism.”
The contours of the ceasefire deal struck this week were largely the same as those Biden announced in May 2024, after months of haggling between and Israel and Hamas over reaching another deal following a brief November 2023 truce that freed some 100 hostages.
After Trump won election in early November, his team became directly involved in helping to reach another truce. Trump’s strong rhetoric also seemed to move things along, as he warned of “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not returned.
Trump dispatched his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to the region to help with ongoing negotiations in Doha, Qatar, along with Biden official Amos Hochstein. Experts interviewed in this story said Trump appeared to be the dominant factor in getting the deal over the finish line, along with his willingness to exercise leverage that Biden never did.
In the months ahead, however, the U.S.-Israeli relationship is likely to be tested as Netanyahu weighs implementing the deal fully against his far-right coalition. It has largely opposed executing the agreement and wants to destroy Hamas, the other war objective besides freeing the hostages.
Annelle Sheline, a research fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Trump’s influence could be decisive in pressuring Netanyahu, whose country relies on U.S. military aid, should he choose to exercise that power.
“My concern … was that Trump’s interest in the deal only extends as far as inauguration, that it would not outlast Monday,” she said. “I hope that I’m wrong and that Trump actually is interested in achieving a deal. He’s talked about the possibility of winning a Nobel Peace Prize for this, but for that, he would need the ceasefire to actually hold.”
About 94 hostages are expected to still be held in Gaza. In the agreement, the first phase will last some six weeks and see the return of 33 of the most vulnerable hostages, including women, children and the elderly, in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
The second phase includes the release of the next round of hostages, likely men and male soldiers, along with a permanent end to the war. A ceasefire holds if negotiations continue.
This second phase will be crucial and could easily fracture during the talks. Experts are extremely pessimistic that a deal can be carried out until the end.
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, said the agreement was an “initial, fragile step in a complex and volatile process,” predicting tensions around hostage and prisoner exchanges.
“Both sides will likely face significant internal pressures to advance to the next phase, even as the risk of hostilities reigniting remains high,” he said in an email. “Both Israel and Hamas will maintain military presence in Gaza throughout the first phase of the agreement, leaving open the strong possibility that fighting could resume.”
The third phase will also be tricky, as Hamas will return the bodies of deceased hostages in return for a postwar Gaza reconstruction plan.
The question of how Gaza should be handled after the war has vexed Netanyahu, and he has repeatedly pledged to retain indefinite security control over the coastal strip.
Under the preliminary agreement, Israel is expected to withdraw from most parts of Gaza but maintain some buffer zone for security. The critical Philadelphi Corridor at the Gaza-Egypt border and the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza are only expected to be Israeli-held during negotiations.
It’s unclear how the final security agreements will look, including if an international coalition is needed to keep the peace and rule Gaza. And it’s unclear who will carry out and pay for reconstruction in Gaza.
The ceasefire deal’s vagueness has frustrated both Israelis and Palestinians, who both see the reached agreement as failing to address their most serious concerns.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a Palestinian American and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the deal does nothing for Palestinian freedom and fails to create an effective day-after plan for Gaza that would rid it of Hamas. He argued it was dire for Palestinians in Gaza to secure a new government and political structure that involves the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank, with help from an international Arab-led coalition.
Alkhatib said he has little confidence in Trump but hopes “there will be enough pressure to not entirely forget about the Gaza Strip and to remain engaged.”
“My concern is that Trump’s team will forget about Gaza and move on to the regional aspects,” he said. “As long as this is out of the headlines, as long as the hostages have been returned, they will absolutely potentially move on from this, and that concerns me greatly and immensely, not because they’re incapable of doing something, but because they will not prioritize the Gaza Strip in this way.”
Ruth Wasserman Lande, a former member of Knesset who lives in Israel, also said the deal was not good because it allows Hamas to continue threatening Israel. She said at the very least there must be a buffer zone to protect Israeli citizens after the war.
Lande said there is little choice but to trust Trump.
“He said he will help Israel. I put my full trust in him, hoping that he would do what I feel is necessary. And he did say that Hamas should not be in existence,” she said. “What they will do remains to be seen, and I hope they will do the right things.”
Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas. He is the author of “Inside The Middle East — Entering A New Era,” and his latest docuseries, “The Seam Line,” available on the Izzy streaming platform, focuses on Jerusalem’s flashpoints and his work during the intifadas.
Trump inherits fragile Gaza ceasefire | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by Brad Dress, originally published in The Hill |
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