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How could China step in after Iran’s nuclear setback following US strikes? Experts weigh in | Avi Melamed interviewed by Garvit Bhirani | LIVEMINT INDIA |
LiveMint is a daily financial newspaper published in India. It is read by business leaders and policy makers. It has 57,112,508 readers (print + online).
In a statement exclusively to Livemint, former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed said, “At this stage, it can be assessed that Iran’s military nuclear programme has been significantly set back, though not entirely dismantled.” He believes Beijing is expected to pressure Iran to de-escalate.
Melamed opined, “The Iranian regime now faces two paths, both of which it perceives as choosing the lesser of two evils. One option is to continue the military confrontation. The other is to return to the negotiating table. The distinction is critical: the military path would dramatically escalate the threat to the regime’s survival, while a negotiated path—though requiring the regime to swallow a bitter pill and accept conditions it once refused to even discuss—could allow it to preserve a core power base and maintain its grip on power.”
He added, “In this context, China’s role is worth watching closely. It is likely that Beijing will exert quiet but deliberate pressure on Iran to de-escalate and resume negotiations. In either scenario, a period of intense internal turbulence within the regime is expected, with consequences that remain unclear at this time.”
In a surprise attack, the United States struck Iran’s nuclear facilities — Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow — on Saturday night. Slamming the attack, China said it has damaged the US’s credibility, warning the situation “may go out of control”, according to its state broadcaster. Experts have weighed in on Beijing’s role as Tehran suffers a serious setback to its nuclear programme.
China’s UN Ambassador Fu Cong said parties should contain the “impulse of force, avoid exacerbating conflicts and adding fuel to the fire”, particularly Israel “should immediately cease fire to prevent the situation from escalating and avoid the spillover of war”. Iran was impacted “but the United States’ credibility was also damaged – both as a country and as a participant in any international negotiations,” he said.
‘Beijing will exert quiet, deliberate pressure on Iran to de-escalate’
In a statement exclusively to Livemint, former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed said, “At this stage, it can be assessed that Iran’s military nuclear programme has been significantly set back, though not entirely dismantled.” He believes Beijing is expected to pressure Iran to de-escalate.
Melamed opined, “The Iranian regime now faces two paths, both of which it perceives as choosing the lesser of two evils. One option is to continue the military confrontation. The other is to return to the negotiating table. The distinction is critical: the military path would dramatically escalate the threat to the regime’s survival, while a negotiated path—though requiring the regime to swallow a bitter pill and accept conditions it once refused to even discuss—could allow it to preserve a core power base and maintain its grip on power.”
He added, “In this context, China’s role is worth watching closely. It is likely that Beijing will exert quiet but deliberate pressure on Iran to de-escalate and resume negotiations. In either scenario, a period of intense internal turbulence within the regime is expected, with consequences that remain unclear at this time.”
Senior Analyst at the Renmin University of China, Zhou Rong said, “In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Foreign Minister Wang Yi was very clear that China stood with peace and not with either side. So this time, whether it’s Israel or Iran, China’s position remains the same,” according to The National News.
“China will do its best to promote peace in the region. It will act within its capacity. We will do more to support Iran, morally, but no one – not China or any other country – can stop Israel’s attacks. All we can do is try to form a united front against Israel’s aggressive behaviour and help Iran with some level of resistance. But even then, China still hopes to stop the war between the two sides,” Zhou further remarked.
‘3,125 Chinese citizens safely evacuated from Iran’
Meanwhile, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, mentioned that the Chinese citizens in Iran who were showing readiness to leave had all been evacuated to safe areas. As many as “3,125 Chinese citizens have been safely evacuated from Iran” with the help of China’s foreign ministry, the Chinese embassy in Iran and other authorities, Jiakun informed.
Marco Rubio urges China to dissuade Iran from blocking Strait of Hormuz
While Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said the world must ensure Iran does not become a nuclear threat again, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to stop Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil. If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them if they do it,” Fox News quoted Rubio as saying. He added, “If they [close the Strait]… it will be economic suicide for them. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”
How could China step in after Iran’s nuclear setback following US strikes? Experts weigh in | Avi Melamed interviewed by Garvit Bhirani | LIVEMINT INDIA |
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