Israel _ October 7 _ One Year On | TRUMPET WORLD

Israel _ October 7 _ One Year On | Avi Melamed on the TRUMPET WORLD Podcast – Special Guest – October 19, 2024.

On today’s episode we have two interviews, the first with Tal-Or Cohen Montemayor, the founder and CEO of CyberWell, an Israel-based nonprofit dedicated to eradicating online anti-Semitism. The second interview is with Avi Melamed, author of Inside the Middle East and former Israeli intelligence officer.
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\ Rising Tensions in the Middle East
Mihailo and Avi discuss Israel’s rising tensions with Lebanon, Iran’s influence, and actions and reactions of the West.

Israel _ October 7 _ One Year On | Avi Melamed on the TRUMPET WORLD Podcast – Special Guest – October 19, 2024.

Israel’s Strategic Objectives in the North (0:00 – 3:00)

• Israel’s goal in the north is to eliminate the threats posed by Hezbollah, focusing on rocket and anti-tank missile capabilities.
• The IDF’s operations are aimed at ensuring the security of northern Israeli communities by removing Hezbollah’s infrastructure near the border.

Hezbollah’s Hesitation to Fully Engage (3:00 – 5:00)

• Despite Israel’s actions, Hezbollah has been reluctant to fully engage or escalate the conflict, partly due to its weakened position after Israeli strikes.
• The Iranian regime, which heavily influences Hezbollah, has not given the green light to escalate the situation with long-range missile launches.

Lebanese Public Sentiment and Hezbollah’s Power Struggles (5:00 – 7:00)

• There is growing discontent within Lebanon, even among Hezbollah’s traditional Shiite base, with many Lebanese seeking to regain sovereignty from Hezbollah’s control.
• Some leaders, including former Hezbollah members, are openly critical of the group for dragging Lebanon into war.

Hezbollah’s Loss of Influence (7:00 – 9:00)

• Hezbollah’s position has deteriorated over the past year. While it was once seen as invincible, it is now in a much weaker state.
• This shift presents an opportunity for Lebanon to reclaim its sovereignty, potentially breaking free from Hezbollah’s dominance.

Israel’s Focus on Removing Border Threats (9:00 – 12:00)

• Israel aims to secure the border by eliminating immediate threats such as Hezbollah’s presence and anti-tank missiles, rather than trying to eliminate Hezbollah entirely.
• While Hezbollah’s rocket stockpiles are a concern, the main focus is on neutralizing the most direct threats to Israeli communities.

Syrian Role and Bashar al-Assad’s Position (12:00 – 15:00)

• Assad has not openly supported Hezbollah’s actions against Israel, reflecting his reluctance to get involved in a broader conflict with Israel.
• Assad is attempting to loosen his reliance on Iran, in part due to discontent among Syria’s Alawite population over Iranian influence.

Potential Resurgence of Syrian Rebel Forces (15:00 – 18:00)

• The weakening of Hezbollah and the regional turmoil may give momentum to Syrian rebel groups, offering them a chance to reassert control in parts of Syria.
• Turkey’s role in Syria and its fluctuating relationship with Assad could further complicate Syria’s stability.

Iran’s Regional Strategy (18:00 – 21:00)

• Iran’s strategic network of proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, is integral to its regional power.
• If Hezbollah’s influence wanes in Lebanon, Iran may attempt to rebuild its network of influence quickly, but it may struggle to do so without significant external support.

Western Powers’ Role in Countering Iranian Influence (21:00 – 23:00)

• The Western world, particularly the U.S. and European nations, need to adopt a more decisive stance against Iran to reshape the strategic dynamics in the Middle East.
• This could be a pivotal moment for the West to counterbalance Iran’s control over regions like Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iraq.

Potential Impact on Refugee Crisis (23:00 – 26:00)

• Increased instability in Lebanon and Syria could trigger a new refugee crisis, with thousands potentially fleeing to Europe via Turkey.
• Countries like Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon are already overwhelmed by refugees, and any escalation could exacerbate the strain, influencing Europe’s response to the situation.

If you want to have a better understanding of the news and what really drives the unfolding events… Read the latest book of Avi Melamed,
INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST | ENTERING A NEW ERA, available now >>>

Follow me on Twitter @AviMelamed; Facebook @InsideTheMiddleEast; for more Videos on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/AviMelamed

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