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Cease-fire negotiations are an opportunity for Israel. What will Iran do? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network | This article has already published in more that 227 other media and newspapers.
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3-minute read
Observers throughout the region are debating about why, despite its bombastic rhetoric, Iran and its proxies have not yet responded more than two weeks after the killings of Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut and Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The anticipation has heightened global tensions, with fears of a severe escalation of violence in the Middle East driven by the possibility of an Iranian attack and the Israeli response.
Tehran’s reluctance may signal the regime’s strategic dilemma. The combination of intense international diplomatic pressure, Israel’s firm stance on retaliation, and the potential for a cease-fire in Gaza could prompt Iran and Hezbollah to deescalate, allowing them to sidestep a regional war while maintaining credibility with their base as well as their deterrence in the region.
A report quoting a senior Iranian official suggests that Iran’s planned retaliation may be scrapped if a cease-fire in Gaza is reached.
Both Iran and Hezbollah are facing a critical dilemma. Their decisions are deeply intertwined, ultimately hinging on Iran’s final decision and instructions. Iran must weigh the risks of directly retaliating against Israel for Haniyeh’s assassination, considering the potential for escalating conflict and the failure of previous retaliation efforts. Iran must decide whether Hezbollah should retaliate against Israeli strikes, risking a full-scale war that could destabilize Lebanon and severely damage Hezbollah, its most crucial proxy. Given these dilemmas, they have good reasons to avoid escalation.
The big question is whether Iran and Hezbollah can back down from their public threats to punish Israel — and if so, how it can do so without losing face?
Is Iran capable of pragmatic decisions? Yes
Despite its radical and aggressive rhetoric, the Iranian mullah regime is capable of pragmatic decisions. A marathon runner deeply rooted in Shi’a beliefs, Iran’s strategic playbook includes camouflage, deception, disguise and maneuvering as legitimate tools to use according to the circumstances and needs. History shows the regime’s flexibility; during the 1980s, the grueling eight-year Iran-Iraq war ended in an agreement that Iran’s then-Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, called a necessary “bitter pill” to swallow.
So, what could be a mechanism that enables the regime to avoid retaliation against Israel despite its threats, keep its face, and even harvest credit?
One potential solution to avoid retaliation while maintaining dignity could be the renewal of talks between Israel and Hamas, leading to a cease-fire.
Such an outcome could be framed as a success by all sides.
Iran could claim its restraint prompted Israel to seek a cease-fire out of fear of an Iranian attack. The mullah regime could argue its self-restraint is asserting its commitment to the well-being and protection of the Palestinians. Additionally, Iran could present itself as a reasonable actor open to dialogue and willing to engage in diplomatic solutions.
Hezbollah has declared that it will cease its attacks on Israel once a cease-fire is achieved. If this happens, Hezbollah can claim it has achieved its goal, thereby avoiding the necessity of launching an attack that could lead to devastating Israeli retaliation.
What’s next for Hamas?
In the ongoing behind-the-scenes process aimed at preventing an escalation, Yahya Sinwar’s appointment as head of Hamas’ political bureau, following Ismail Haniyeh’s elimination in in Tehran on July 31, is another facet of this complex equation.
Sinwar’s appointment likely had the blessing of the Iranian regime. While interested in escalating the conflict into a regional war, Sinwar has not fully achieved this goal. As someone close to Iran, under the current circumstances, he cannot ignore the regime’s interest in avoiding escalation. If a cease-fire deal now is indeed a way for the Iranian mullah regime to bypass its dilemma and keep face, Sinwar will not ignore that. Thus, the odds of an agreement increase.
Israel does not wish for escalation or the broadening and intensification of the conflict. A cease-fire would at least temporarily halt the escalation process. From Israel’s perspective, under these circumstances – given Iran’s interest in avoiding escalation and Sinwar’s need to be tuned to Iran’s interests, there is a window of opportunity to leverage the situation for a better deal. This could lead to an initial agreement to end the fighting and secure the release of Israeli hostages.
Nonetheless, the situation remains volatile. The Iranian regime and Hezbollah continue to publicly commit to retaliating against Israel. Iran and Hezbollah’s threats are real. The outcomes of such an attack — if it occurs — will dictate the course of events. A severe outcome for Israel from such an attack — such as massive civilian casualties or significant damage to civilian infrastructure — would lead to a strong Israeli counter-response and an almost inevitable escalation.
Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas. He is the author of “Inside The Middle East | Entering A New Era,” and his latest docuseries, “The Seam Line,” available on the Izzy streaming platform, focuses on Jerusalem’s flashpoints and his work during the intifadas.
Cease-fire negotiations are an opportunity for Israel. What will Iran do? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network | This article has already published in more that 227 other media and newspapers.
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