IRAN INSIGHTS BY AVI MELAMED
March 13, 2023
Immediate and Possible Ramifications of the Saudi – Iran Agreement
The Saudi-Iran agreement reflects, first and foremost, China’s growing presence and influence in the Middle East. Chinese policy is laser-focused, guided by two main interests – food and energy security. Hence, security and stability along the One Belt One Road maritime and land route are critical for the Chinese to meet their needs.
Throughout the Middle East, from the Persian/Arabian Gulf to the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, China is investing, increasing its foothold, grip—and influence in the region. The Chinese giant will not look favorably upon its investments and interests being harmed. Tensions and threats in the Persian / Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin threaten China’s oil supplies, maritime trade routes, and increasing large-scale investments in the region. These are all critical components of China’s vision of domination. And no country will ignore China’s needs.
The Saudi – Iran agreement will likely have immediate impacts in different arenas. Iran is now formally committed to China’s interest in stability – at least in areas of utmost significance for China – the Persian/Arab Gulf, the Arab Sea, and the Red Sea.
The agreement has a couple of immediate ramifications in the foreseeable future.
One, Iran puts its nuclear program on hold.
Two, The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea will experience a period of calm in the near future after a long period of instability due to attacks by Iran and its proxies on naval vessels in the area and on oil infrastructures in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
Three, in Yemen, the ceasefire between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government will be extended and likely expanded, and Houthi attacks on Saudi soil will cease.
Four, the agreement speeds up the process of the return of the Assad regime to the Arab world. In this context, it is possible we will see more gestures on the part of Saudi Arabia towards the Assad regime.
Another significant arena that needs to be closely watched following the agreement is Iraq. China is massively invested in Iraqi oil fields. And Iraq has become China’s third-largest source of imported oil. More than half of the oil Iraq produces is exported to China. As an oil supplier, Iraq is of utmost importance to China. Therefore, stability in Iraq is crucial for China. Iranian grip on Iraq creates turbulence in Iraq, fueling tensions in Iraq between Iraqi nationalists and pro-Iranian Iraqi interventionists, thus resulting in escalating political instability in Iraq. That trajectory could lead to tension between Iran and China.
The Israeli Angle
In the Arab world as well as in other circles, the assessment is heard that the agreement harms Israel. One of the reasons for this assessment is that the agreement inhibits the dynamics of the Abraham Accords and blocks the continuation of the Israeli-Saudi dialogue. But I have a different opinion. The Israeli-Saudi dialogue will continue as it has so far in a slow and low-profile process because Saudi Arabia, which is very threatened by Iran, will not drop the Israeli card.
In addition, in my opinion, the agreement serves Israel in three aspects in the visible future.
First, the agreement inhibits or at least greatly slows down Iran’s progress to nuclear weapons, at least in the foreseeable time frame.
Second, calm in the Persian / Arab Gulf arena to meet China’s need for stability serves Israel because so far, Iran has used the card of violence and attacks against vessels in the Gulf area (including Israeli-owned vessels) in part in an attempt to create a deterrent balance that will cause Israel to stop its attacks against Iranian targets in Syria. Following the agreement, this card fell out of Iran’s hands – at least for the foreseeable future.
Third, the agreement could also reduce in the visible future the potential for a wide military round between Israel and Gaza. The agreement surprised Hamas and the Islamic Jihad organization supported by Iran. It seems that in the near future, these organizations will try to understand the consequences of the agreement on their activities and their means. In light of this, and in light of the fact that the month of Ramadan begins in about a week, the potential for a wide-scale military flare-up between Israel and the Gaza Strip in the near term is significantly reduced, even if clashes between Israel and Palestinian militants in the West Bank continue.
March 10, 2023
Today’s news about China bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran a bit closer and their commitments to restore their embassies not only makes headlines about those two nations but also will likely have reverberations throughout the region and global politics. At a first glance, it shows that its extremely likely that Iran is committing to cease its advancement towards nuclear armaments- a red line in the sand that both China and Saudi Arabia are strong opponents of. It also shows the growing Chinese influence in the Middle East.
There will be other ramifications I’m sure we will see over the days and weeks ahead, specifically likely in Syria and Yemen. While some may think that this might signal that this blocks any chance of a Saudi-Israel path to relations, it’s highly likely that given the Saudi’s experience and knowledge of how the Iranian regime operates, it’s highly likely they will continue to keep their options open vis-a-vis normalizing relations with Israel.
December 24, 2022
Iran’s vision of an Iranian fully-controlled Iranian Land Corridor stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria and ending up in Lebanon is facing serious obstacles. To that, one should add the ongoing uprising inside Iran. In my evaluation, the mullah regime will refrain in the foreseeable future from any dramatic move that could accelerate a US decision to act militarily against its nuclear program. Thus, I evaluate that in the foreseeable future, Iran will continue its policy of walking on the edge with regard to its nuclear program, yet it will not cross specific red lines.
PREDICTION: I evaluate that in the foreseeable future, Iran will continue its policy of walking on the edge with regard to its nuclear program, yet it will not cross specific red lines in an attempt to prevent a military strike on Iran.
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