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Iran’s Uprising Has Been Suppressed, Not Extinguished | An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
What is unfolding in Iran is not merely another protest cycle—it is an uprising rooted in the structural failure of the Islamic Republic. While the regime has faced eruptions of unrest before, the current moment challenges the very ideological foundations, governing logic, and regional posture of the state born in 1979.
This is not about reform. It is about rupture.
The Regime’s Core Ideology: Mission Before Nation
At the heart of the Islamic Republic lies a missionary revolutionary ideology, not a nation-centered one. The doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist) vests ultimate political and religious authority in the Supreme Leader, whose role is not only to rule Iran but to defend the “oppressed” (mustad‘afin) worldwide and actively export the Islamic Revolution.
This worldview casts Iran as the vanguard of a transnational Shiite mission. Under the banner of the so-called “Shiite Crescent,” Tehran has poured enormous resources into building and sustaining semi-state and proxy actors across the region—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, and others. Regional expansion, deterrence signaling, and ideological dominance consistently take precedence over domestic wellbeing.
This is not a tactical policy choice. It is the regime’s identity.
What Fuels the Uprising: Despair, Collapse, and Daily Survival
The uprising is fueled primarily by despair, not abstract political theory. Iran’s economy is collapsing under the weight of systemic corruption, sanctions mismanagement, and ideological rigidity. Inflation, unemployment, and poverty are compounded by the breakdown of vital infrastructure—chronic water shortages, failing electricity grids, environmental degradation, and energy misallocation.
Iranians increasingly see an unbearable contradiction: billions spent on foreign militias and regional confrontation, while the state cannot reliably provide water, electricity, jobs, or a future. The widening gap between ideological ambition and reality lies at the core of the uprising.
A Generation with Nothing to Lose
At the center of this uprising stands the anger of a young generation that has grown up knowing only repression, isolation, and fear. Millions of Iranians—especially those under 35—live under a brutal regime that suffocates their dreams, crushes personal freedom, and blocks any path toward a life of hope, dignity, and openness to the world.
This generation is globally connected and acutely aware of what it is denied. They see peers elsewhere building lives of creativity, opportunity, and choice, while they are told to sacrifice endlessly for an ideology that offers no future. Their rage is not episodic—it is existential. They are not asking to reform the system; they are demanding escape from a political, social, and psychological prison.
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Deterrence Erosion and the October 7 Domino Effect
The regime’s internal crisis has been intensified by the erosion of Iran’s deterrence image, particularly the October 7 regional domino effect – the weakening of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the defeat of Hezbollah in the war with Israel, the downfall of Assad regime and the 12 days war between Iran and Israel revealing the vulnerability. Tehran’s long-cultivated image of strategic mastery and control has weakened. Internally and regionally, the perception is growing that Iran’s model produces instability abroad while failing catastrophically at home.
A regime that appears less invincible becomes more vulnerable to challenge.
External Signals and the Psychology of Defiance
Another accelerant was former President Trump’s explicit declarations of support for the Iranian people. Regardless of follow-through, such statements matter psychologically. They crack the regime’s narrative that resistance is futile and the world indifferent. For many Iranians, the message was simple: you are seen.
Brutal Suppression—and Strategic Failure
For now, the regime has brutally crushed the uprising through executions, mass arrests, intimidation, and fear. Tactically, it has succeeded. Strategically, it has failed.
Repression cannot resolve Iran’s structural crises. The regime has no answers to the real needs of society, and its brutality has only deepened public anger, alienation, and moral rupture. The disappointment felt by Iranians over limited international support is painful—but it will not extinguish the uprising. It will re-emerge—more mature, more determined, and more radical in its clarity.
What Lies Ahead: Decline Without Immediate Collapse
This is not a short-term countdown to regime collapse. But it is a process of accelerating internal and external delegitimization. In the medium term, Iran should expect political reshuffling, elite fragmentation, and growing instability within the system.
That is why this moment must be called what it is: an uprising, not a protest.
Iranians increasingly understand a hard truth: no external actor will liberate them. In the end, they will have to free themselves from a regime that prioritizes ideology, expansion, and control over life, dignity, and nationhood.
The Mullah regime can imprison people, but it cannot extinguish aspirations. Once fear gives way to defiance, repression only deepens resolve.
This article is also available as a Podcast: the AiTME Podcast. This Podcast was written and created by Avi Melamed, Middle East Intelligence Analyst and Founder of Inside The Middle East [ITME], an institute dedicated to apolitical, non-partisan education about the Middle East.
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Iran’s Uprising Has Been Suppressed, Not Extinguished | An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
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