Trump 2.0 could be very different for Israel and its wars | STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

Trump 2.0 could be very different for Israel and its wars | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted by Ryan Robertson for STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS


Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant in early November. The move means there’s no real opposition left to Netanyahu in the governing coalition, leaving many Israeli citizens to wonder when the wars in Gaza and Lebanon will end.

Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence officer and hostage negotiator. He’s an author now, and Straight Arrow News has spoken to him several times over the course of the war in Gaza.

He correctly predicted some of the actions taken by the Israeli military, including the measured responses to Iran’s two missile attacks. Concerning Gallant’s firing, Melamed said it didn’t really surprise anyone in Israel.

“I think that they both understood that their forced cooperation, to a large extent, has come to an end,” Melamed said. “They have different political agendas. So Netanyahu fired Gallant, and I think that Gallant, basically from a political perspective, gained credibility in Israeli public opinion. He comes across as one that actually puts the best of the nation above any other calculation.”

There is growing sentiment in Israel that Netanyahu is keeping the wars going for political reasons, such as wanting to avoid an election that might see him replaced. Others say the prime minister wants to keep the focus on war-fighting, and not how the war started.

“That criticism is not new,” Melamed said. “It’s coming from different circles, not only the public realm, of course, but it comes from circles that were involved, or are involved, in the negotiations. Particularly the security and intelligence establishment that openly stated, more than once, there could be a window for a deal for releasing hostages, and Netanyahu was actually damaging or sabotaging or stopping the process. Depends who defines what. It seems like all in all, when you hear all these voices, it seems like those allegations are not baseless.”

According to The Guardian, after being sacked by Netanyahu, Gallant told some of the families of hostages still being held in Gaza there was “nothing left for the IDF to do.” From a military perspective, Gallant said the Israeli military’s mission was over, and it’s now inappropriate for Israel to still have troops there.

Militarily, Melamed would tend to agree with Gallant. Hamas is significantly weakened and can’t dictate any sort of agenda, not like it was able to for the last 40 years, and certainly not like it was able to on Oct. 7.

“But again, if you are going from a political perspective — and particularly I’m talking about the ultra-nationalist right wing in the government — would obviously like to see the continuation of the war,” Melamed said. “Because they are dreaming of the day they will be able to reestablish Israeli settlements. Netanyahu, from a political perspective, has an interest in the endurance of the war, as of now, until some new circumstances will arise when Netanyahu will decide that now it’s time to announce triumph, ultimate triumph and ultimate victory.”

But will the far right’s move be embraced by Israel’s allies? Specifically, the U.S.? Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich did say now that President-elect Trump is set to take the White House again, Israel should look to extend its sovereignty to the West Bank. And there are growing calls in Israel’s far right to annex the Gaza Strip as well.

Melamed said there’s reason to believe, however, a second Trump term won’t be a carbon copy of the first.

“Because it’s about Trump’s legacy. And I think that the right wing leaders in Israel should listen very carefully to what he said this time,” Melamed explained, “[Trump] said, ‘I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to end wars.’ Which is a very strong message. It didn’t come from Trump in the previous time. And so I would definitely expect that his policy, vis-à-vis the whole issue, will be much more balanced. Including a veto on any idea of Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, in the areas that are clearly not supposed to be under any kind of Israeli sovereignty.”

Melamed said Trump will likely want an extension of the Abraham Accords, with more nations normalizing relations with Israel and a distinct focus on Saudi Arabia. But there again, the Saudis won’t come to the negotiating table while the war in Gaza is ongoing. 

So, while Israel, and its government, may be readying for a return to the right in the U.S., Jerusalem probably shouldn’t expect a blank check or free pass from Trump.


Trump 2.0 could be very different for Israel and its wars | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted by Ryan Robertson for STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS

If you want to have a better understanding of the news and what really drives the unfolding events… Read the latest book of Avi Melamed,
INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST | ENTERING A NEW ERA, available now >>>

Follow me on Twitter @AviMelamed; Facebook @InsideTheMiddleEast; for more Videos on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/AviMelamed

I can always be reached at Av*@Av********.com

Avi Melamed
Avi Melamedhttps://insidethemiddle-east.com
Avi Melamed is an expert on current affairs in the Arab & Muslim World and their impact on Israel & the Middle East. A former Israeli Intelligence Official & Senior Official on Arab Affairs, Fluent in Arabic, English, and Hebrew, he has held high-risk Government, Senior Advisory, Intelligence & Counter-Terrorist intelligence positions in Arab cities & communities - often in very sensitive times - on behalf of Israeli Government agencies. He is the Founder & CEO of Inside the Middle East | Intelligence Perspectives - an apolitical non-partisan curriculum using intelligence methodology to examine the Middle East. As an Author, Educator, Expert, and Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Avi provides Intelligence Analysis, Briefings, and Geopolitical Tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policymakers, global media outlets, and a wide variety of international businesses, organizations, and private clients on a range of Israel and Middle East Affairs.

JOIN THE HUB Newsletter

BUY THE BOOK

New book by Avi Melamed, acclaimed intelligence & geopolitical analyst - Inside the middle east | Entering a new era | published in 2022

MORE FROM ITME

Analysis | Iranian & Hamas Leaders meeting in Teheran – November 8 2023 | I24 NEWS

Analysis | Iranian & Hamas Leaders meeting in Teheran - November 8 2023 | Avi Melamed on I24 News Expert Panel - in courtesy...

Death of Sinwar _ What’s next ? | DEUTSCHE WELLE DW NEWS

Death of Sinwar _ What's next ? | Avi Melamed interviewed by DW - DEUTSCHE WELLE https://youtu.be/abohc465bz4 Avi Melamed’s Background: Avi Melamed is a former Israeli...

Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza

Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza | Intelligence Bulletin ******* Information Date: April 30 2013 Event Date: April 30 2013 Information Item: Rockets Expert Killed in Israeli Air Strike in Gaza Information...

Israel vuelve a la calma relativa tras una jornada explosiva en la frontera con Líbano | EFE

Israel vuelve a la calma relativa tras una jornada explosiva en la frontera con Líbano | Avi Melamed quoted by By Jorge Dastis in...

Israeli Analytic Blames Palestinian for Misfired Rocket – Deadly Gaza Hospital Blast | SPUTNIK

Avi Melamed’s insights were quoted in this article “Israeli Analytic Blames Palestinian for Misfired Rocket - Deadly Gaza Hospital Blast" by Svetlana Ekimenko for...