Trump’s New World Order: His ‘plans to end Ukraine war | DAILY MAIL

Trump’s New World Order: His ‘plans to end Ukraine war with 800-mile buffer zone’ and what his victory means for the rest of the world | Avi Melamed quoted by David Averre in the article For Daily Mail.

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Former Israeli intelligence officer and regional analyst Avi Melamed said: ‘It’s very possible that the incoming administration will trigger Iran to reconsider a large-scale retaliation.

‘By signalling a measured response, Iran could be attempting to show Trump and his incoming administration that it poses less of a threat to regional stability than previously assumed.

‘For Tehran, avoiding a direct confrontation with Israel could be framed not as weakness, but as a strategic gesture aimed at building confidence with the incoming Trump administration.’

Donald Trump‘s dominant victory in this week’s US presidential election has left politicians, captains of industry and military chiefs the world over scrambling to calibrate their approaches ahead of his return to office. 

The firebrand Republican’s first stint in the White House saw him tackle a range of major foreign policy issues, including the COVID-19 pandemic, normalising ties between Israel and Arab nations and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal.

But the world today is very different to the one the Trump administration left behind in January 2021, and the soon-to-be 47th president of the United States now faces a global landscape marked by many intense flashpoints.

Russia’s war with Ukraine is rumbling on toward its third year, the Middle East has been plunged into chaos amid Israel’s conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, and America’s great power rivalry with China is at its most tense.

Trump’s approach to these highly charged and complex problems remains to be seen, though a recent report claimed his transition office is considering a proposal that would seek to freeze the conflict in Ukraine with an ‘800-mile demilitarised zone’.

That is unlikely to be welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his European partners who are adamant that Kyiv should not surrender territory to the Kremlin, and remains unsubstantiated by US officials. 

This is a break down the biggest issues facing Trump ahead of his return to the world stage, examines how he may seek to approach them and assesses what the consequences might be.

Europe

Ukraine and NATO

Trump has famously said that the Russia-Ukraine war would never have started had he been president and claimed he could bring the conflict to an abrupt halt – without ever revealing his plans for doing so. 

A recent Wall Street Journal report citing three sources ‘close to the president-elect’ claimed that Trump’s transition office is considering one proposal that would prevent Kyiv from joining NATO for at least 20 years in exchange for lucrative arms deals.

In the meantime, the conflict would be halted by the implementation of a large demilitarised zone (DMZ) that would effectively freeze the fighting in place and force Kyiv to relinquish up to 20% of its territory as part of an ‘800-mile DMZ’.

But the sources offered no insight into how such a buffer zone between Russia’s border and unoccupied Ukraine would be monitored or managed, other than to say it would not be staffed by American peacekeepers.

‘We can do training and other support but the barrel of the gun is going to be European… and we are not paying for it,’ one source is quoted as saying. 

Britain, France and Germany have already vowed to support Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’ and Zelensky is adamantly against relinquishing territory to Vladimir Putin.

Today, the Ukrainian leader said that making any concessions to Putin would be ‘unacceptable for Ukraine’ and ‘suicidal for Europe’. 

With that in mind, it is difficult to see how such a plan could be pushed through other than by strong-arming Kyiv with threats of withholding sorely needed US military aid.

This would dramatically undermine Washington’s relations with all of Europe and call into question the legitimacy of NATO.

Some analysts and politicians have cautioned it could even embolden the likes of China to capitalise on the West’s perceived disunity and seek to expand its influence in the Pacific. 

Fears that the Republican might seek to unilaterally withdraw from NATO altogether are overblown, with US Congress having passed legislation that requires a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate to approve such a move. 

However, many analysts have warned that Trump is indeed likely to reduce US’ military aid to Ukraine and force Kyiv’s European partners to shoulder a huge burden to maintain an adequate supply of arms – a move that would certainly pile pressure on Zelensky to consider a negotiated settlement and ceding territory.

‘Trump does have a legitimate point about European allies having underperformed in defence and over-relied on Uncle Sam to protect them for too long, and this is a huge wake-up call to the West,’ Dr Russell Foster, Senior Lecturer in British and International Politics at King’s College London, told MailOnline. 

‘But Europe, Canada, and Australasia have let their defence spending stagnate for so long, they have nowhere near the industrial base and military infrastructure to help defend Ukraine and themselves from further aggression without American help. 

‘We are likely to see major calls for defence spending and investment across NATO – but this will take years to build up and be hugely expensive at a time of economic stagnation. The future of Western defence is now looking very bleak.’ 

Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, added: ‘The immediate crisis within Europe will be how to continue diplomatic, military and humanitarian support to Ukraine without the US. 

‘Whichever mechanism it comes through – NATO, the EU, or bilaterally – it will be incredibly expensive.’

Perhaps in a sign of things to come, French President Emmanuel Macron told a European leaders’ gathering this week that the continent ‘must not delegate forever our security to America’.

He argued that Trump would legitimately ‘defend the interests of the American people’ and asked: ‘Are we ready to defend the interests of the European people?’

EU and the economy

Besides European concerns over the future of Ukraine and NATO under a Trump presidency, the EU is wary of Trump’s attitude to trade deals and economic relations.

At home, Trump’s return to power is likely to significantly ease some of the regulatory pressures the financial and industrial sectors have seen under the Biden administration.

Broad deregulation in banking and cryptocurrency and tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy are widely expected.

But bankers and industrial leaders are worried about the impact of trade tariffs, which Trump has touted as a way to help reduce national debt – a plan many economists say is doomed to fail. 

Trump’s previous administration slapped tariffs on EU steel and aluminium in 2018, prompting Europeans to retaliate with duties on US-made motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, among other items.

This time round, Trump has floated the idea of imposing a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US, with the possibility of higher rates on high-value items. 

Goldman Sachs economists estimate that if Trump went ahead with his tariffs, their direct effect plus the trade uncertainty they would generate could cost the eurozone countries at least one percentage point of GDP growth. 

Finland‘s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said he was concerned about the prospect of a trade war as economists warned of a scenario in which both sides ramped up fees and more restrictive import measures.

‘It should not be allowed to happen,’ he said. ‘Let’s now try to influence the US and Trump’s future policy so that he understands the risks involved.’

For now, the European Commission has tasked a closed-door team of officials and economic experts to study how the EU will be affected ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January.

Britain

Following Trump’s election victory, a top US analyst has warned that the incoming president would view British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as a ‘lightweight woke lefty’ and will not trust him. 

Nile Gardiner, director of The Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, told DailyMail.com that the President-elect would see the Prime Minister as a ‘novice’ when it comes to negotiating.

The Labour leader is currently ‘in the dog house’ after dozens of Labour activists flew to the US to help Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the election.

Mr Gardiner said that relations are so bad Sir Keir might not even be welcome at Mr Trump’s Florida estate were he to fly there and kiss the ring.

But he could start by sacking his foreign secretary David Lammy, who has called the President-elect a ‘serial liar’ and a ‘wannabe despot’ in the past. 

The incident with Labour activists in the final weeks of the US election, which Mr Trump won convincingly, led the Trump campaign to file a complaint with the American election regulator, the FEC.

Sir Keir tried to patch things over with Mr Trump by pointing to the dinner they shared in New York in September.

And after Mr Trump’s surprise landslide against Ms Harris, the Prime Minister has talked about how ‘crucial’ a strong US / UK relationship is.

Mr Gardiner however said there would be ‘significant tensions ahead’ when it came to Britain and America, saying that the relationship would be strained because Sir Keir ‘represents a socialist worldview and agenda that’s an anathema to Trump’.

The two men are likely to clash over the Middle East with Labour recently banning some arms sales to Israel while Mr Trump will be one of the country’s strongest supporters.

The same dynamic will play out with regards to Israeli attacks on Iran which Labour are more cautious about.

On climate there are big differences too and even on Brexit, Sir Keir is far softer than Mr Trump. There is also a breakdown on a personal level too, despite the two-hour charm offensive Sir Keir deployed over dinner.

But the biggest divide may well be the more than 100 Labour activists who flew to the US to campaign on behalf of Ms Harris. In the complaint to the FEC, the Trump campaign demanded an inquiry into ‘immediate investigation into blatant foreign interference’.

All this combined puts the ruling Labour government on the back foot before Trump has even re-taken office. 

Asia

China 

At the top of Trump’s foreign policy agenda lies the U.S.-China rivalry, which has only intensified over recent years. Under Trump, this competition is expected to further escalate. 

The president-elect has been open about his intentions to dramatically reduce America’s reliance on products manufactured and exported by Beijing. 

Trump has proposed introducing sky-high tariffs on Chinese imports while attempting to phase out specific goods such as electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals over his four years in office.

He also seeks to crack down on Chinese companies seeking to buy American real estate and invest in energy and tech infrastructure. 

Trump’s election success was met with a diplomatic and non-committal response from China’s foreign ministry which said it would ‘handle US ties based on mutual respect and win-win cooperation’.

But diplomats on both sides will be hard-pressed to maintain already shaky bilateral relations should Trump press ahead with his stated plans. 

Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, RUSI’s Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, concluded that Trump’s policy toward China will ultimately focus on ‘avoiding conflict under an approach of ”peace through strength”.’ 

By contrast, the Biden administration’s attempts to decouple from China centred around leveraging its relationships with other allies.

Washington has supported multilateral security and trade initiatives such as AUKUS (Australia, UK, US), the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) and the ‘Chip 4’ alliance – a grouping of Japan, South Korea, US and Taiwan that aims to secure global supply chains for semiconductors and critical technologies.

Dr Zeno Leoni, Lecturer in Defence Studies and Lau China Institute affiliate at King’s College London, said Trump’s divisive nature could damage cooperation between Western allies.  

‘While a second Trump administration may not undo these China-focused initiatives, it could lead the US to withdraw further from international agreements and exert more pressure on close allies to support US containment of China with even greater energy,’ he said.

‘China will still be the number one rival for the United States… and Chinese strategy-makers hope that a Trump presidency will weaken cohesion within the Western bloc.’

RUSI’s Shetler-Jones added: ‘A second Trump Presidency will cause concern in the region about disruption flowing from intensification of the ”America first” principle in US trade policy. Trump’s victory may widen the economic divide across the Pacific.’

Taiwan

China’s growing aggression toward US-allied regional neighbours, particularly Taiwan, is also a significant factor.

The self-governed island also elected a new leader earlier this year, Lai Ching-te, who has angered Beijing on several occasions with his staunchly pro-sovereign rhetoric.

Trump has unnerved the democratically governed island, having declared that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence while complaining its advanced semiconductor industry had taken business away from America.

Taiwan may therefore feel the need to demonstrate it takes Donald Trump’s ‘protection’ money demand seriously.

‘Watch for Taiwan on the defence side to try and start engaging them on a big arms package – to do something significant, very large,’ Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council said.

‘But think of it as a down payment, an attention-getter,’ he said. ‘They’ll stack up several big platforms and big buys of munitions.’

The US is already Taiwan’s most important arms supplier, although Taiwan has complained of an order backlog worth some $20 billion.

North Korea

The final challenge to be confronted by Trump in the region is North Korea.

The world in 2018 witnessed a landmark moment when Trump became the first US president to ever meet a North Korean leader when he came face to face with Kim Jong Un at a summit in Singapore.

That moment, which analysts heralded as Washington’s recognition of North Korea as a legitimate state, triggered what looked to be a dramatic shift in bilateral relations.

Pyongyang’s dynastic chief engaged in talks with US diplomats, laid the foundations for denuclearisation and appeared genuinely keen to repair relations with the West – later meeting Trump again in 2019 for a historic handshake in the demilitarised zone splitting the Korean peninsula.

But Trump’s talks were ultimately unsuccessful, and shortly after the 2019 meeting Kim announced he had lifted a moratorium on nuclear testing and vowed to plough ahead.

Ever since, Kim has pursued a much more hawkish policy, seeking closer ties with the likes of Russia and China while ordering military scientists and his massive defence industry to embark on a campaign of rapid armament and nuclear expansion.

Trump has often touted his strong relationship with the leader he once called ‘little rocket man’, but South Korean experts have said Kim was burned when negotiations went south in 2019 and is unlikely to reverse course to re-engage with the US.

The US’ approach to North Korea will further be complicated by the presence of thousands of troops from Pyongyang in Russia after Putin and Kim agreed a new defence pact.

Ukraine’s armed forces have already come into small-scale contact with North Korean soldiers in the Russian region of Kursk, officials reported this week, and South Korean intelligence suggests up to 11,000 of Kim’s troops are ready to wage war against Kyiv on Moscow’s behalf. 

Middle East

Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah

Trump has continually pledged that he will seek to end wars rather than start them.

In the Middle East, this rhetoric will be tested on multiple fronts amid Israel’s ongoing wars with Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Israeli citizens are still reeling from the October 7, 2023 attacks and desperate for the return of the hostages seized by Hamas.

The Palestinian death toll in Gaza is approaching 50,000 thanks to Israel’s incessant bombardment, while the civilian population across southern Lebanon – and in the capital Beirut – has been subjected to similar punishment as of late as the IDF seeks to cripple Hezbollah.

RUSI’s Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security Dr Burcu Ozcelik characterised Trump’s approach to the Middle East as a ‘complex list of unknowns’, chief among which is how much leverage Trump will have over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Most analysts agree that Washington’s support for Israel is likely to increase as Trump is expected to take a tougher stance toward regional foe Iran.

But analysts are split over what such support might look like and whether Trump will give Israel free rein to continue its military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon – or push Netanyahu to bring the conflict to a swift, but brutal, close.

In anticipation of Trump’s arrival, Netanyahu has set about making his position secure and on the night of the election sacked Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, replacing him with loyalist Israel Katz.

‘The region will remain locked in a liminal state of affairs until Trump’s inauguration in January… What happens between now and then will be watched closely, and nervously, by those in the Middle East,’ Ozcelik said.

Iran

In his first presidency, Trump was bullish in his approach to Iran under hardline President Ebrahim Raisi and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

He dramatically withdrew the US from the JCPOA nuclear deal designed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities and instead chose to levy crippling sanctions against Tehran’s economy and oil industry.

In the final year of his presidency he also authorised the assassination of Iran’s most powerful military figure and leader of the Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.

There is no reason to suspect his approach the second time round would soften, according to RUSI’s Ozcelik, who said Trump will be ‘unlikely to reset his unflinching take on Iran’.

This time round, however, Trump will be dealing with a new Iranian president who may be more willing to seek a middle ground after Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash earlier this year.

Unlike his predecessor, Masoud Pezeshkian is a more moderate figure who has signalled a willingness to re-engage with the West and cooperate with Washington in return for sanctions relief.

There is hope that Trump’s presidency could therefore prove to be somewhat of a stabiliser and encourage Iran to discontinue the recent pattern of tit-for-tat strikes with Israel.

Former Israeli intelligence officer and regional analyst Avi Melamed said: ‘It’s very possible that the incoming administration will trigger Iran to reconsider a large-scale retaliation.

‘By signalling a measured response, Iran could be attempting to show Trump and his incoming administration that it poses less of a threat to regional stability than previously assumed.

‘For Tehran, avoiding a direct confrontation with Israel could be framed not as weakness, but as a strategic gesture aimed at building confidence with the incoming Trump administration.’

But the extent to which Pezeshkian can hash out a better relationship with Trump will be influenced heavily by the will of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has repeatedly vowed to ‘defeat the Zionist regime’ and remains strongly opposed to the West.

A tougher US stance on Iran would be welcomed by the likes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are wary of Iran’s regional influence and believe there is more to be gained under a second Trump presidency, such as security guarantees and arms deals. 

Latin America

Trump’s fiery rhetoric on immigration, including vows to ‘secure the southern border’ and deport illegal migrants, was a cornerstone of his presidential campaign as he pledged to launch the largest deportation of undocumented migrants in American history.

Despite Democrat attempts to paint Trump as a racist, the president-elect secured an unprecedented 46% of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polls, and tackling migration is sure to be near the top of his priority list when he gets into office.

US relations with Latin America are therefore poised for a dramatic shake-up, and nowhere is this prospect more palpable than in Mexico.

America’s southern neighbour is also its largest trading partner, with imports, exports and services between them accounting for nearly $800 billion in 2023.

But Mexico’s newly elected president Claudia Sheinbaum is facing the daunting reality of a renewed – and potentially more combative – focus on migration policy.

Trump’s administration will expect Sheinbaum’s government to cooperate closely on firming up border security, dramatically cutting back the rates of illegal migration and expediting the deportation process – potentially in the face of threats of higher tariffs and economic penalties.

Elsewhere, Trump will find allies in Argentina’s leader Javier Milei, who since entering office in December 2023 has embarked on one of the world’s most dramatic campaigns of economic transformation, slashing spending while attempting to curb horrific inflation of more than 200%.

In his campaign, Milei professed his support for Trump and said he wanted to replace the peso as Argentina’s national currency with the US dollar – though that took a back seat as the nation got to grips with his economic ‘shock therapy’.

He also rejected an invitation for his country to join the BRICS group of nations – an intercontinental economic coalition led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that many see as the primary vehicle looking to challenge Western political and economic dominance.

Trump’s election victory will also embolden the hard-right figure of Brazilian politics, former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro left office on New Year’s Day in 2023 when incumbent president Lula da Silva took office, and was subsequently ruled ineligible for public office until 2030 after he called into question Brazil’s voting system.

His allies have been pushing to restore his eligibility. His son, Senator Fabio Bolsonaro, wore a ‘Bolsonaro 2026’ shirt to the polls last month.

‘Trump’s victory will inspire conservatives worldwide and reinforce the movement in Brazil to re-elect Jair Bolsonaro as president in the 2026 elections,’ said Valdemar Costa Neto, head of Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party (PL).

Africa

Many people dismissed Trump’s interest or willingness to engage with Africa as a whole after he reportedly described several African nations – along with Haiti and El Salvador’ – as ‘s***hole’ countries in a now infamous Oval Office meeting in 2018.

But the media furore over this comment belies his administration’s recognition of the continent as an extremely important region.

J. Peter Pham, former special envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes and the Sahel region under the Trump administration, told The Africa Report that the president-elect’s administration is keen to find ‘capable partners’ to work with on the continent and will take a pragmatic approach to its diplomacy there.

While many African nations rely heavily on the US for humanitarian aid and economic support, they are also the guardians of vital resources coveted by powers the world over.

China and Russia have worked hard to build their influence over African governments, investing heavily in energy, technology, telecoms and infrastructure development and offering favourable loans.

In return for such initiatives – which are typically free of the strings attached to Western support – Russian and Chinese corporations are granted priority access to critical minerals like copper, lithium and cobalt, as well as political sway.

Trump will be intent on safeguarding US interests in Africa and likely cannot afford to implement any dramatic cuts in aid or investment as a result.

He has also previously implemented policies designed to foster US-African economic cooperation and trade, including the Prosper Africa initiative launched in 2018.

The once-and-future president has not outlined any clear policy or stance with respect to Africa, so it is difficult to predict how he will proceed.

It is also hard to predict whether a Trump White House will take a more decisive view of some of Africa’s most brutal armed conflicts and crises, chief among which is the ongoing civil war in Sudan that has been described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

On the whole, African responses to Trump’s election reflected a cautious optimism. 

Prominent figures like Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed were swift to extend their congratulations when Trump announced his victory, likely to single themselves out as ‘capable partners’.

Leaders in Uganda and South Africa also echoed support.

Uganda’s Speaker Anita Among suggested that Trump’s return could alleviate sanctions on African officials imposed by the Biden administration, while South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed optimism for collaboration, particularly ahead of South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025.

Trump’s New World Order: His ‘plans to end Ukraine war with 800-mile buffer zone’ and what his victory means for the rest of the world | Avi Melamed quoted by David Averre in the article For Daily Mail.

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