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Analysts warn Iran’s survival in 2025 could fuel greater risks in 2026 | NEWSWEEK

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Analysts warn Iran’s survival in 2025 could fuel greater risks in 2026 | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this update on NEWSWEEK.


Iran’s clerical establishment enters 2026 weakened but intact, with analysts cautioning that Tehran is interpreting survival after a punishing year as justification for taking bigger risks ahead.

The past 12 months saw direct confrontation with Israel, clashes with the United States, and the erosion of Iran’s regional proxy network. Domestic pressures mounted as inflation and dissent spread, yet the system did not collapse. Instead, experts say the regime is reframing endurance as proof of resilience.

Avi Melamed, a Middle East analyst, described a psychological shift inside Iran, noting that “many Iranian people are no longer afraid of this regime.” Historian Shahram Kholdi argued that leaders view 2025 through a survivalist lens, encouraging defiance rather than restraint.

Journalist Jay Solomon called the year a “reversal,” pointing to weakened proxies and economic strain. Still, Iran’s missile arsenal remains largely intact, and officials appear determined to rebuild deterrence.

Analysts warn that Tehran’s belief it “didn’t lose” the June war with Israel could heighten the risk of miscalculation in 2026. Survival, they suggest, is being treated as victory — a mindset that may make the coming year more volatile than the last.


Analysts warn Iran’s survival in 2025 could fuel greater risks in 2026 | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this update on NEWSWEEK.

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Avi Melamed
Avi Melamedhttps://insidethemiddle-east.com
Avi Melamed is an expert on current affairs in the Arab & Muslim World and their impact on Israel & the Middle East. A former Israeli Intelligence Official & Senior Official on Arab Affairs, Fluent in Arabic, English, and Hebrew, he has held high-risk Government, Senior Advisory, Intelligence & Counter-Terrorist intelligence positions in Arab cities & communities - often in very sensitive times - on behalf of Israeli Government agencies. He is the Founder & CEO of Inside the Middle East | Intelligence Perspectives - an apolitical non-partisan curriculum using intelligence methodology to examine the Middle East. As an Author, Educator, Expert, and Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Avi provides Intelligence Analysis, Briefings, and Geopolitical Tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policymakers, global media outlets, and a wide variety of international businesses, organizations, and private clients on a range of Israel and Middle East Affairs.

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