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Analysts warn Iran’s survival in 2025 could fuel greater risks in 2026 | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this update on NEWSWEEK.
Iran’s clerical establishment enters 2026 weakened but intact, with analysts cautioning that Tehran is interpreting survival after a punishing year as justification for taking bigger risks ahead.
The past 12 months saw direct confrontation with Israel, clashes with the United States, and the erosion of Iran’s regional proxy network. Domestic pressures mounted as inflation and dissent spread, yet the system did not collapse. Instead, experts say the regime is reframing endurance as proof of resilience.
Avi Melamed, a Middle East analyst, described a psychological shift inside Iran, noting that “many Iranian people are no longer afraid of this regime.” Historian Shahram Kholdi argued that leaders view 2025 through a survivalist lens, encouraging defiance rather than restraint.
Journalist Jay Solomon called the year a “reversal,” pointing to weakened proxies and economic strain. Still, Iran’s missile arsenal remains largely intact, and officials appear determined to rebuild deterrence.
Analysts warn that Tehran’s belief it “didn’t lose” the June war with Israel could heighten the risk of miscalculation in 2026. Survival, they suggest, is being treated as victory — a mindset that may make the coming year more volatile than the last.
Analysts warn Iran’s survival in 2025 could fuel greater risks in 2026 | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this update on NEWSWEEK.
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