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How Syria could turn into another global nightmare | Avi Melamed quoted by David Averre in the article For Daily Mail.
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Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed told MailOnline: ‘Rebel groups in Syria are unlikely to directly confront Israel due to Syria’s need for reconstruction and Israel’s military strength. However, emerging threats from radical Sunni groups in northern Syria remain a possibility.
‘The collapse of the Assad regime is reshaping the region’s security dynamics, alleviating some key threats to Israel… but Israel remains vigilant and prepared to act decisively to safeguard its security.’
Syrian rebel groups capped off their lightning offensive against government forces this weekend when they seized the capital city Damascus, thus sealing the stunning fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s longstanding regime.
The president’s last-ditch escape to Russia to avoid certain death at the hands of the rebels marked the end of some five decades of the Assad family’s dynastic rule – and the end of a brutal 14-year civil war.
Mass celebrations erupted in Damascus on Sunday as hopeful civilians took to the streets to greet the insurgents who liberated thousands of prisoners from Assad’s torturous jails.
All roads into Syria were also gridlocked as thousands more jubilant refugees flocked from neighbouring countries, desperate to return to their homes.
But now, after years of death and destruction, the war-torn nation is at a pivotal crossroads with the fate of its long-suffering population hanging in the balance.
There are hopes that Assad’s toppling could herald a new dawn in which various rebel factions can hash out some kind of power-sharing arrangement and begin rebuilding toward a peaceful, more prosperous future.
But many analysts warn this could prove just another chapter in Syria’s violent history in which rival militias become embroiled in a bitter power struggle as civilians continue to suffer.
Meanwhile, the likes of Turkey, Russia, Israel, Iran and the US are seeking to advance and safeguard their regional interests – and all are wary of the threat of a possible ISIS resurgence amid the chaos.
Here, MailOnline reviews each of the key players in the Syrian saga, examines their interests and motives, and explores how the next chapter in the nation’s torrid history might unfold in the aftermath of Assad’s long-awaited downfall.
HTS and rebel forces
The rebel offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group that burst out of its stronghold in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib less than two weeks ago.
HTS has its roots in the jihadist al-Qaeda, but since its founding in 2017 has tried to reposition itself as a more moderate Syrian nationalist organisation.
Its leader Ahmad al-Sharaa – better known by his nom-de-guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani (also spelt Jawlani or Julani) – insists that he will work to create a tolerant, civilised nation where religious and ethnic minorities can live peacefully.
The Sunni Islamist insurgents have also claimed they won’t impose any harsh restrictions or religious dress codes on women.
But major doubts persist over HTS’ commitment to upholding such equality – and whether the group will be willing to work with other factions as part of a coalition government, thereby loosening its grip on power.
Regional analysts and human rights activists point out that HTS imposed an authoritarian Islamist rule over its territory in Idlib and there are suspicions that the group’s jihadist origins remain.
Besides HTS, the other major player in the rebel offensive against the Assad regime is the Syrian National Army (SNA) or Free Syrian Army (FSA) – an umbrella group of rebel militias that have long been financed and armed by Turkey.
The rebel factions were able to fight effectively side-by-side to topple Assad, but now their divisions could be highlighted in the resulting power vacuum.
Analysts and observers hold out hope that some kind of power-sharing arrangement could be reached, laying the foundations for stability and development.
Signs on Monday were limited but encouraging.
While Assad fled to Moscow, Syria’s prime minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali remained in post along with other cabinet ministers, declaring he is working with the rebels to ensure a peaceful transfer of power.
The mood in towns and cities recaptured by HTS and other armed groups also appears hopeful, with civilians reporting they were being treated positively by rebel militants.
HTS is currently designated a terror organisation by the US, UK and EU, and Washington is yet to remove a bounty it placed on Golani’s head.
But if HTS follows through on its commitments to cultivating tolerance and achieving peace, it could stand to benefit from greater engagement with the West.
British senior minister Pat McFadden said on Monday that Britain could drop its proscription of HTS as a terrorist organisation, depending on what its next steps are.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, told MailOnline that a best-case scenario could see HTS work with other factions to achieve stability.
‘Will there be democracy? Probably not in the Western sense – but some kind of consultative system, possibly involving elections, could emerge,’ he said.
‘HTS seem clear that they want Islamic governance but also show awareness of minority rights. It is not clear that they will fall into the Taliban trap of ignoring domestic and international opinion and women’s rights.’
Turkey
Turkey is a hugely influential player in Syria and its support of the Syrian National Army was a key factor in the toppling of Assad.
Ankara was heavily involved in the negotiations that brought the civil war to a half with a tenuous ceasefire in 2020, and worked with Russia’s military to implement patrols and buffer zones in northern Syria to prevent further clashes.
But even after hostilities subsided, Ankara continued to finance and arm the SNA and other militant groups while maintaining relations with Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran.
Now, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoys considerable leverage over Syria’s future thanks to its involvement with the SNA and what is believed to be a cautious agreement with HTS.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Monday that Ankara hopes the fall of the Syrian government will usher in a new era where different ethnic and religious groups can live peacefully under an inclusive new government.
Fidan also said his country hopes that a ‘new Syria’ would maintain good relations with its neighbours and bring stability to the volatile region.
These good intentions do not extend to the Kurds, of course.
Turkey sees the Kurdish Syria’s Democratic Union Party (PYD), and its armed wing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as terrorists that represent a danger to Turkish sovereignty and security.
The Kurds occupy an autonomous region in Syria’s northeast, but Turkish-backed militants have already forced the SDF out of several towns further west.
Fidan said it was important that the Islamic State group and Kurdish militants do not take advantage of the situation, adding that Turkey ‘would work with determination’ to prevent Syria from turning into a ‘haven for terrorism.’
Turkey’s disdain for the SDF as a terror organisation comes even as the Kurdish militants worked closely with the US throughout Syria’s civil war to eliminate ISIS.
Russia
The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria represents a significant blow to Vladimir Putin’s pride and his insistence that Russia remains a global power.
Russia, along with Iran and Hezbollah, ensured that Assad’s regime survived the civil war that stemmed from the Arab Spring protests in 2011 and the brutal crackdown Assad imposed on his people.
In 2015, thousands of Russian troops were deployed to the country while the air force conducted incessant bombing campaigns of rebel positions and major cities in a ruthless but effective intervention to prop up Assad.
But with Moscow now contributing huge resources to wage its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin was powerless to prevent the rapid collapse of the Syrian government amid the renewed rebel onslaught.
Beyond the damage to Russia’s status, Assad’s ousting could also prove a real strategic defeat for the Kremlin.
Putin’s armed forces maintain a series of airbases along the nation’s eastern flank, as well as Russia’s only Mediterranean naval base in the city of Tartus.
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at the RUSI think tank, told MailOnline: ‘It is in Russia’s interest to seek to maintain access to its bases, but its ability to project power in and through Syria is now severely debilitated.
‘It will take time and negotiations with the new Syrian administration – a yet-to-be-determined entity – before it is clear what Russia’s stakes in Syria will be.
‘But this is now a radically transformed Syria, and Russia has no good options.’
Russian officials have remained tight-lipped on the situation, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said maintaining Russia’s bases in Syria was ‘very important’.
‘We are doing everything that is possible and necessary to get in touch with those who can provide security. And our military are also taking precautionary measures,’ he added.
Foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said that Russia was holding talks on the security of its citizens in Syria, Interfax news agency reported on Monday.
Meanwhile, Russian media outlets quoted anonymous lawmakers as saying that any attacks on Russian bases in Syria would be met with a harsh response.
Israel
The crushing defeat of Assad’s government forces by rebel groups in the past fortnight was due in no small part to Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Lebanese group – often referred to as the ‘jewel in the crown’ of Iran’s Axis of Resistance – was instrumental in providing military support and arms to Assad’s forces throughout the Syrian civil war.
But it has suffered widespread attacks on its command-and-control centres, financial institutions and key military infrastructure by Israel in recent months which dramatically reduced its capabilities and eliminated much of its leadership.
Now, the Jewish state is focused on securing its borders and ensuring that Islamist rebel forces cannot threaten Israeli citizens with future strikes.
Analysts have said there is little prospect of Syria’s rebels attacking Israel in the aftermath of Assad’s downfall, but Israeli officials say they cannot afford to leave it to chance.
Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military would ‘destroy heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria, including surface-to-air missiles, air defence systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets, and coastal missiles’.
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar added that the IDF sent a few hundred troops to firm up its presence along the demilitarised zone separating the Israeli occupied Golan Heights from Syria, but stressed Israel did not want to meddle in Syria’s internal affairs.
‘It’s basically near our borders, sometimes a few hundred metres, sometimes one mile or two miles,’ he said. ‘It is a very limited and temporary step we took for security reasons.’
Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed told MailOnline: ‘Rebel groups in Syria are unlikely to directly confront Israel due to Syria’s need for reconstruction and Israel’s military strength. However, emerging threats from radical Sunni groups in northern Syria remain a possibility.
‘The collapse of the Assad regime is reshaping the region’s security dynamics, alleviating some key threats to Israel… but Israel remains vigilant and prepared to act decisively to safeguard its security.’
Iran
The defeat of Assad’s regime complicates woes for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
His Islamic Republic has suffered considerably since the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.
The resulting war has seen Israel systematically degrade Iran’s proxy forces Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while authoring several missile and drone attacks on Iranian soil.
Several key members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have died in the Israeli strikes, along with former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated in Tehran this summer.
The IRGC committed massive resources to recruit, train, finance and arm various militias that reinforced Assad’s Syrian government troops during the 13-year-long civil war against rebel groups.
With the Assad dynasty overthrown, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is left without a major regional ally and two crippled proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah.
Only the Houthi rebels in Yemen and a patchwork of pro-Iranian militias that keep Iraq under Tehran’s thumb remain.
RUSI’s Dr Burcu Ozcelik said: ‘There is no doubt that the fall of the Assad regime is a highly consequential defeat for Iran, the implications of which will unfold in ripples and waves.
‘Syria was the conduit for Iran’s systematic support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, this supply chain has now been cut off.’
Iran will now likely look to double down on its budding relations with international powers Russia and China.
US
The fall of the Assad regime was welcomed by the US and its Western allies.
US President Joe Biden said Assad should be ‘held accountable’ for his despotic rule but also warned that his departure was a moment of ‘risk and uncertainty’.
The US’ main priority remains the repression of the Islamic State, which still maintains a small presence in Syria despite its defeat in 2019.
Washington maintains roughly 900 soldiers on the ground in Syria operating several bases alongside Kurdish-led forces in the east.
This weekend, the US air force embarked on a bombing campaing of ISIS positions, with officials reporting some 75 targets were hit in air strikes by B-52 bombers and A-10 air-to-ground aircraft.
‘There’s a potential that elements in the area, such as ISIS, could try to take advantage of this opportunity and regain capability… Those strikes were focused on those cells,’ Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said.
The US also continues to support the SDF and other Syrian Kurdish groups in northeastern Syria, with whom the White House cooperated closely in the fight against ISIS.
But concerns remain that Donald Trump, who has long decried US involvement in Syria, could seek to withdraw America’s military presence from the region following his return to the White House next month.
Analysts warn that could not only fuel a potential resurgence of ISIS, but could also leave Kurdish groups vulnerable to more attacks by the Turkish-backed SNA.
The SDF has been pushed out of several towns in northern Syria by the SNA in recent days, and Turkey sees the SDF as a terrorist organisation.
ISIS
The Islamic State was once the most feared jihadist group in the region and played a major role in the Syrian civil war, capitalising on the chaos to expand its caliphate.
By 2014 it had managed to conquer huge swathes of Syria and neighbouring Iraq.
But it was met by huge resistance from the US-backed Kurdish SDF; a US-led coalition force of more than a dozen countries including the UK, France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan; Turkish-backed groups; Russian forces and even the Syrian government.
The extremists wilted under this onslaught and rapidly lost territory before suffering effective defeat in Syria by 2019. Remnants of ISIS in Syria withdrew to a smattering of camps in the Badiya desert.
Now, the prospect of a resurgent ISIS in Syria is slim, but fears persist as Britain’s former secret service chief warned of a ‘serious spike’ in the terror group’s threat to Europe.
Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, said fighters from the terrorist group are being detained in camps in eastern Syria by Kurdish groups and US troops.
But if the SDF redirects its resources to protect Kurdish areas from assaults by Turkish-backed militants and Donald Trump pulls US troops out of Syria, the ISIS prisoners could break out.
Sir Alex told BBC Radio 4 Today: ‘The camps represent a hotbed of radicalisation and haven’t been sorted out. If the SDF were to go off the job, our security situation here would worsen.’
He added: ‘For us, I think we need to be realistic. The reality, the one thing you know about Syria for sure, proven by history, is that attempts to impose change from the outside will not work.
‘But we also have some hard interests and the primary one of those as I have said before is the existence of a very large number of ISIS detainees left over from the destruction of the caliphate, currently contained by the Kurdish groups in the east.
‘But if they go off the job you can expect a serious spike in the threat posed to Europe by ISIS.’
How Syria could turn into another global nightmare | Avi Melamed quoted by David Averre in the article For Daily Mail.
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