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Israel Invades Lebanon: What We Know, What We Don’t | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by Brendan Cole Senior News Reporter for NEWSWEEK | Published Oct 01, 2024
“The purpose of this ground operation is to clear hubs that Hezbollah was preparing in proximity to the Israeli-Lebanese border,” former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told Newsweek.
“Those hubs are depots of weapons and communication systems and were supposed to be the launching pads to conduct a ground attack on Israeli communities next to the border,” he said.
“The purpose here is to degrade and actually neutralize the master plan of Hezbollah, to conduct a ground attack style October 7 on the Israeli community.”
Israel’s military has said that its forces entered Lebanon on Tuesday in “a limited ground operation,” marking an escalation of its offensive against Hezbollah militants.
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said that it had begun “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids” against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure.
The IDF killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last week, and Israel bombed Lebanon as it seeks to eradicate the Iranian-backed group, sparking concerns of a wider regional conflict.
Newsweek reached out to the IDF via email for comment.
What We Know
The IDF said in a statement on X that a political decision had been made to target Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon “based on precise intelligence.”
It added that Operation “Northern Arrows” will continue “according to the situational assessment and in parallel to combat in Gaza and in other arenas” as the statement reiterated one of its goals to “return the citizens of northern Israel to their homes.”
The IDF called for people living in more than two dozen villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate their homes immediately and move to the north of the Al-Awali River, which is around 30 miles inside the country.
While the IDF announced the “limited” ground operation on Tuesday, its spokesman Daniel Hagari said that Israeli forces have been operating inside Lebanon dozens of times over the past months, where they had destroyed tunnels.
“The purpose of this ground operation is to clear hubs that Hezbollah was preparing in proximity to the Israeli-Lebanese border,” former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told Newsweek.
“Those hubs are depots of weapons and communication systems and were supposed to be the launching pads to conduct a ground attack on Israeli communities next to the border,” he said.
“The purpose here is to degrade and actually neutralize the master plan of Hezbollah, to conduct a ground attack style October 7 on the Israeli community.”
Amid spiraling hostilities, Hezbollah said it had targeted Metula, in northern Israel, twice this morning hours with artillery and rocket fire and that they had successfully hit their target. The group said that the attack was “in support of our steadfast Palestinian people” in Gaza and “in defense of Lebanon and its people.”
Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes continued to target Beirut Tuesday, with the IDF saying that “several” weapons manufacturing sites and Hezbollah infrastructure had been hit in Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut regarded as a Hezbollah stronghold.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said that around 1 million people have been displaced across Lebanon since the start of Israeli airstrikes last month and that his country is facing “one of the most dangerous phases” in its history.
What We Don’t Know
Israel’s claims mark the fourth time that its soldiers have publicly entered Lebanese soil in nearly 50 years and the first since Israel’s 34-day war in the country in 2006.
However, Israel has not provided many details of its operation on Tuesday, such as where exactly the incursion happened along the 75-mile border, and its end game is unclear.
A senior security official told the BBC that Israeli ground forces have only gone as far as “very close walking distance” into Lebanon, and so far, there have been “no clashes.”
Also, Hezbollah has denied that Israeli troops had advanced into Lebanese territory at all, saying in a statement that Israel’s claims are false.
“All Zionist claims that occupation forces entered Lebanon are false,” Hezbollah media relations official Muhammad Afif said on Tuesday in comments reported by Al Jazeera.
Afif added that Hezbollah is ready for a “direct confrontation” if Israeli troops “dared to enter Lebanese territory.”
What is also unclear is Israel’s objectives regarding the operation. Israeli officials have said there will be “no long-term occupation” but have not specified how long it will last.
U.S. officials quoted by NBC News said they expect the operation to last days, not weeks, and that its geographic reach will be “limited.”
Rosemary Kelanic, director of Middle East engagement at Defense Priorities, told Newsweek that Israel may have suggested it would be a short operation, but there are parallels with the Gaza invasion and the prospect of mission creep.
She said following the October 7 attacks by Hamas, Israel said it would go into northern Gaza to clear out Hamas, “then they went further into Gaza and they’re still there.”
Early reports suggest Israel has informed the United States it is going to be a limited incursion. “But are they really going to just go in to create a buffer in the South, or are they potentially open to or even planning on going further?” she said.
“If their objective is that they want to prevent an October 7-style attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon, then they could probably do that by going 20 miles or so up to the Litani River and clearing out Hezbollah and just occupying it for some period of time,” she said.
“That could potentially work,” she said and could prevent a paramilitary-style invasion of Israel from the north.
However, she said if the goal is really to get displaced Israelis from the north back into their homes, which is what the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, Hezbollah rockets will still be a threat.
“The rocket problem is going to extend them a lot further than the Litani River because Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of short-range, medium-range and long-range vessels,” she said.
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