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The killing of a key Hamas military leader is important for Israel. But how important? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network | This article has already published in more that 225 other media and newspapers.
3-minute read
On Saturday, July 13, in a daring airstrike in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis, the Israel Defense Forces targeted Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s chief military strategist and the head of its armed forces, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade, along with Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade commander, Rafa’a Salama. Hamas formally confirmed Salama’s death but said nothing about Deif’s fate. One Hamas official claimed that Deif survived. However, the response from Hamas militants on the ground suggests otherwise, and Israeli intelligence agencies reportedly assess with high probability that the strike either killed or severely injured Deif. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew indicated that there are signs Deif was indeed killed.
When any nation, especially Israel, considers carrying out a targeted strike against individuals involved in terrorism, referred to as “centers of knowledge,” three operational intelligence conditions must be met: high-quality real-time intelligence, a window of opportunity, and an assessment that the overall achievement of the killing outweighs any potential diplomatic and legal implications from potential civilian casualties. During the current war, the fourth part of the equation for Israel also includes analyzing whether the terrorist is hiding among Israeli hostages. In this case, Israeli decision-makers believed all these conditions were met and thus launched the strike after a period of close surveillance.
Palestinian sources claim the attack killed over 100 people and injured about 300, arguing that most casualties were civilians and children. These figures have not been verified. Conversely, Israel contends that most casualties were Hamas operatives, including dozens of Deif’s bodyguards.
Visual reports from Arab networks in Gaza, including journalists with close ties to Hamas, do not support Hamas’s claims. Reports showed minimal civilian casualties and that most of the wounded were young men dressed in civilian clothing. Additionally, bodies arriving at hospitals from ambulances were wrapped in adult-sized bags, not the smaller ones that would be used if the casualties were children.
What does Deif’s death mean for Hamas?
If Israel has indeed succeeded in eliminating Deif, the attack has already dealt a significant blow to Hamas on multiple fronts:
Symbolic impact: Deif has become a mythical figure among Palestinian and Islamic circles, where he is called “the living martyr.” He’s lived through prior Israeli attempted strikes and has become, at some level, a romanticized hero of the armed resistance. Given that, Hamas may choose to keep Deif’s fate shrouded in mystery.
Strategic loss: Deif is Hamas’s top military commander and strategist and the mastermind behind its iron grip on Gaza, its attacks on Israel, and its current battle with the IDF. As the head of Hamas’s military operations, he meticulously planned the Oct. 7 attack on Israel and has coordinated and overseen Hamas’s high-level battle plans since the ensuing Israeli incursion. Deif is a crucial conduit of communication between Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’s Politburo in Qatar, involved in hostage and ceasefire negotiations.
Operational impact: This latest strike adds to a series of targeted killings of Hamas commanders and senior members, highlighting deepening Israeli intelligence penetration and presenting an increasing and growing challenge for Hamas. Following the latest attack, reports indicate that Hamas is aggressively conducting an internal investigation, hoping to uncover a suspected deep Israeli intelligence penetration. This breach is believed to have provided the critical information confirming Deif’s presence at the compound and ensuring he was not using Israeli captives taken on Oct. 7 as human shields.
Regional criticism: The proximity of the compound that Deif and Salama were hiding in, to the refugee tent city at Al-Mawasi, has drawn criticism from the Palestinian Authority and Arab leaders around the region. Arab leaders and ordinary citizens in the Arab world are increasingly frustrated with Hamas and its leaders for using civilians in Gaza as their human shields.
Is eliminating Hamas altogether possible?
While some Israeli politicians might simplify one of the primary goals of the Israeli response to Hamas’s war as “eliminating Hamas,” this is an unrealistic objective. The achievable goal is to severely eliminate Hamas’s ability to operate and to curb its — and Iran’s — radical agenda. Achieving this requires dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure and, simultaneously, working with major Arab countries and the United States to create a regional coalition that establishes the conditions to end Hamas’s governance in Gaza.
However, it is important to emphasize that the strike on Deif will not critically affect Hamas’s military operations. Hamas currently operates under a distributed guerrilla model rather than the structured military framework they used before the war. This decentralized approach ensures that the loss of a single leader, even one as influential as Deif, does not paralyze their combat capabilities.
This strike is also unlikely to lead to a breakdown in the negotiation process between Israel and Hamas. The ongoing conflict and negotiation dynamics are complex and multifaceted, and while this strike is significant, it will not derail either side’s broader strategic and tactical maneuvers. However, due to Deif’s role as a critical conduit between Sinwar and Hamas’s politburo abroad, his replacement is already being discussed both in Gaza and abroad.
Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas. He is the author of “Inside The Middle East | Entering A New Era,” and his latest docuseries, “The Seam Line,” available on the Izzy streaming platform, focuses on Jerusalem’s flashpoints and his work during the intifadas.
The killing of a key Hamas military leader is important for Israel. But how important? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network | This article has already published in more that 225 other media and newspapers.
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