Israel’s Hodeida Port Offensive: A Clear Signal to Iran and Its Proxies | July 22, 2024

The powerful Israeli attack on the Hodeida port in Yemen, the Houthis’ oxygen pipeline, must be seen in the context of Israel’s deterrence image. The war initiated by Hamas against Israel on October 7th, the ongoing clash between Israel and Hezbollah resulting in tens of thousands of Israelis evacuating northern settlements, hundreds of attacks by the Houthis on Israel over the past year mostly thwarted, the severe political crisis in Israel – all these have collectively intensified eroding of Israeli deterrence.

Israel’s attack on the Hodeida port sends a clear message: Israel has the capability to inflict significant damage on those who threaten it. While the Houthis have launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel over the past year, causing minimal harm, Israel struck hard at a key strategic asset of the Houthis within hours. Houthi took control over the port ignoring agreement backed by UNSC resolution 2451 (December 2018) according to which the port will be demilitarized. Controlling the port granted the Houthis strategic asset, controlling oil exports and facilitating incoming significant quantities of shipments of weapons from Iran.

The attack on Hodeida port gave Israel an opportunity to practice for real operational, technological and methos developed specifically in context of a scenario where Israel will have to attack in Iran. The fact that Israel’s strike was carried out from a considerable distance underscores a clear warning to the Iranian regime, which seeks to destroy Israel through its proxy terrorist armies spread across the Middle East, including the Houthis.

This Israeli attack also emphasizes Israel’s critical role as a strategic partner in the security of Gulf Arab states threatened by Iran and the Houthis. Saudi Arabia officially clarified it was not involved in the attack. Gulf Arab states have shown little reaction publicly. One can assume that they shade no tears in the back rooms. The Houthis have previously attacked Saudi Arabia and the UAE and recently renewed threats against them.

Iran is not expected to directly retaliate against the attack. Though a decrease in the Houthis’ offensive operations against Israel and maritime targets in the Red Sea may occur following the attack on Hodeida, I estimate the Houthi’s aggression will continue, to demonstrate its unaffected operations. Indeed, shortly after the attack, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile towards Israel, intercepted by Israel’s defense systems. In parallel, it is possible That Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may attempt to attack Israeli strategic sites in the near term. It is a test to Iraqi government who maintain a strategic dialogue with the USA ability to restrain these elements which are part and parcel of Iraq’s military and political framework.

Since late 2023, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, causing growing economic damage globally and regionally. The Houthi threat has made the world economy hostage to the Iranian regime. In December 2023, the United States formed a Western military coalition (“Guardians of Prosperity”) to confront the Houthi threat to maritime trade. This coalition primarily focuses on defensive measures against Houthi attacks and occasionally targets Houthi military infrastructure. However, the coalition has refrained from attacking Hodeida port with full force. It does not seem that guiding policy will change soon.

Iran takes advantage of the fact that its proxies – Houthi, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Iraqi Shiite militias – prioritize radical genocidal agenda over the wellbeing of their own brothers and sisters. Unless decisively conformed, the Mulla regime will continue advancing its vision, further inflicting violence, death and destruction across the region.

My Comments to the Press [July 19, 2024]

YEMEN INSIGHTS by AVI MELAMED

Last night’s Houthi drone attack may turn out to be a miscalculation by the Houthis given that the explosive-laden drone was pointed toward the U.S. Consulate in Tel Aviv, though it’s likely the projectile’s pathway and detonation point were always destined to miss, ever so slightly.

The Houthis hoped to project deterrence against both Israel and the United States, but in the end, that miscalculation could ultimately lead to a significant Israeli response against the Houthis, in coordination with the United States.

In the wake of Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel in April, the U.S. and coalition partners urged Israel to tone down its response, hoping that the realization of a defensive alliance of moderate Arab States, Israel and Western Allies would be seen as a significant enough projection of deterrence. As Biden reportedly told Netanyahu “Take the Win,” and ultimately Israel’s very minimal response, sent a strong message to Iran – that Israel could and would target Iran’s nuclear program if the pattern of direct attacks were to escalate.

But last night’s strike from the Houthis comes at a different time and under other circumstances. The Houthis have harassed global trade for months; have been at various points directly engaged in military strikes against U.S. and coalition naval assets seeking to restore calm to commercial shipping; the Houthis recently re-established their threats against Saudi Arabia; and last night took direct aim at the U.S. Consulate in Tel Aviv.

While Israeli retaliation against Iran was restrained by the need to avoid a potential process of military escalation with Iran that could potentially take place following a massive Israeli attack on Iran, such restraint is less relevant in the case of attacking Houthis in Yemen. An Israeli-U.S. significant response against the Houthis in Yemen will not result in military escalation with Iran.

Ultimately the Houthis have many soft targets that Israel, if unrestrained, could target singularly or en masse, enjoying regional air superiority, with Netanyahu once again facing criticism locally and abroad, and with Israel needing to restore its deterrence capacity amid the ongoing war in Gaza and the related ceasefire negotiations, amid an ongoing dangerous crossfire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and amid growing distrust in Netanyahu, his government, and his defense establishment’s ability to protect the homeland. It’s likely Israel’s counterstrikes will send a strong message.

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Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas. He is the author of “Inside The Middle East | Entering A New Era,” and his latest docuseries, “The Seam Line,” available on the IZZY streaming platform, focuses on Jerusalem’s flashpoints and his work during the intifadas.

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