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Will Israel Invades Lebanon | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by Brendan Cole Senior News Reporter for NEWSWEEK
“Israel has signaled that moving to the next stage of its war plan against Hezbollah is a real option, but it is not inevitable,” regional analyst and former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told Newsweek.
Diplomats have been scrambled to ease tensions in the Middle East after electronic devices linked to Hezbollah members exploded in attacks blamed on Israel that killed dozens and propelled the region toward all-out conflict.
The attacks on the Islamist group’s pagers and walkie-talkies killed 37 people and wounded about 3,000. They were believed to be carried out by Israel, which on Thursday bombed southern Lebanon, the same day that envoys from the U.S. and Europe met ahead of a U.N. Security Council meeting on Friday.
There are fears that the simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, could escalate, with one Israeli geopolitical analyst telling Newsweek that “we have never been closer to an all-out war.”
Another expert said a war is “a real option, but it is not inevitable,” and the attacks could force both Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and negotiations with Hamas over the war in Gaza that started with the deadly October 7 raid in Israel by militants.
On Tuesday, pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded simultaneously in parts of Lebanon and Syria, killing at least 12 people and wounding thousands more. Israel has not commented, but a U.S. official told the Associated Press that it had briefed Washington on the operation.
On Wednesday, 25 people were killed and more than 450 wounded when walkie-talkies exploded in further detonations.
The operations follow Israel’s pledge to broaden the aims of its war in Gaza to include the return of residents in northern Israel who had been evacuated from their homes because of strikes by Hezbollah, which is aligned with Hamas.
In a fiery speech on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the attacks “sheer terrorism” as well as “war crimes or at least a declaration of war,” without indicating what military response his group would undertake.
“We have never been closer to an all-out war, but it can still be avoided as we haven’t crossed the point of no return,” Daniel Shadmy, spokesperson for the non-governmental organization European Leadership Network-Israel (ELNET), told Newsweek.
“As the tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah continues, we are getting closer to a miscalculation and a dramatic escalation of hostilities.”
About 60,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel because of attacks by Hezbollah from Lebanon. Shadmy said the explosions targeting Hezbollah this week may be used to push for a diplomatic solution.
“Israel will not back down until it can bring back its displaced citizens from the north back safely from their homes, may it be by a diplomatic means or not,” he said.
Following the attacks, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib condemned the “blatant assault” on his country’s sovereignty. His Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, accused Israel of seeking to expand the Gaza war to Lebanon.
The White House has warned all sides against “an escalation of any kind” and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined his counterparts in the French capital after discussing the possibility of a Gaza truce in Cairo, posing a tricky foreign policy issue for Washington ahead of November’s election.
The humiliation of the intelligence breach that is believed to have seriously disrupted Hezbollah’s command-and-control capabilities could be leverage for a breakthrough in U.S. efforts to reach a resolution regarding the group’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and in negotiations with Hamas.
“Israel has signaled that moving to the next stage of its war plan against Hezbollah is a real option, but it is not inevitable,” regional analyst and former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told Newsweek.
“Iran and Hezbollah have an interest in ending the skirmish with Israel, especially after the significant blow Hezbollah suffered,” he said. “I anticipate that Iranian pressure on [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar to reach an agreement that would at least temporarily halt the fighting in Gaza will intensify.”
Newsweek has contacted the Israeli Foreign Ministry for comment.
Will Israel Invades Lebanon | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by Brendan Cole Senior News Reporter for NEWSWEEK
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