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Iraq: South Kurdistan (Iraqi Kurdistan) Episode 3 | AiTME #20 | An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
The Kurds in Iraq are a distinct ethnic group concentrated mainly in the north of the country. They number approximately 5.5–6.5 million people, accounting for about 15–20% of Iraq’s population. Most Iraqi Kurds are Sunni Muslims, with smaller communities of Yazidis, Christians, and others. They primarily inhabit the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which includes the provinces of Erbil, Duhok, and Sulaymaniyah, as well as disputed areas such as Kirkuk.
Under the Baʿathist dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, Iraqi Kurds were systematically discriminated against and brutally repressed. Tens of thousands of Kurds were killed during the Al-Anfal campaign, a military and genocidal operation launched by the regime in the late 1980s, involving mass executions, chemical weapons, and forced displacement.
Emergence of Kurdish Autonomy
In 1992, an alliance of Kurdish political parties—the Iraqi Kurdistan Front—held parliamentary elections and established the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), creating a de facto autonomous Kurdish entity in northern Iraq.
Since 2005, Iraqi Kurds have enjoyed constitutionally recognized autonomy under Iraq’s federal system. The KRG operates as an autonomous entity within Iraq, maintaining its own parliament, security forces (the Peshmerga), and substantial control over internal affairs.
Relations with the Iraqi Central Government
Relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Iraqi central government over the past decade have been marked by recurring tension, fragile compromise, and declining Kurdish leverage. Although Iraq is formally a federal state under the 2005 constitution, key provisions—particularly those concerning oil and gas management, revenue sharing, and disputed territories—were never fully implemented.
By entrenched political convention, the President of Iraq is a Kurd, reflecting Kurdish status as a founding partner in Iraq’s post-Baʿath political system. Nevertheless, unresolved constitutional disputes have left relations structurally unstable.
A major rupture occurred following the 2017 Kurdish independence referendum, which Baghdad viewed as an existential threat. The federal government responded by reasserting control over disputed territories (notably Kirkuk), restricting the KRG’s independent oil exports, and applying economic pressure. Since then, Baghdad has expanded its authority over borders, airspace, energy policy, and budget allocations, significantly narrowing Kurdish room for maneuver.
Despite these tensions, Kurds remain institutionally embedded in the Iraqi state. Following the most recent parliamentary elections, Kurdish parties hold approximately 55–60 seats in the Iraqi Council of Representatives (out of 329), primarily divided between the KDP and PUK, alongside smaller Kurdish lists. Relations have shifted from open confrontation to managed dependency: the KRG retains internal self-rule and its security forces, but its autonomy is increasingly conditional on Baghdad’s political dynamics and fiscal decisions.
Relations between the KRG and Turkey
Relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Turkey in recent years have been pragmatic but deeply asymmetrical. While the KRG functions as an autonomous entity within Iraq, it is economically and strategically dependent on Turkey, which serves as its main trade partner and the primary outlet for Kurdish oil exports. Turkey supports Kurdish autonomy within Iraq but firmly opposes any move toward Kurdish independence.
Security cooperation lies at the core of the relationship. Turkey has significantly expanded its military operations inside Iraqi Kurdistan to counter the PKK, conducting frequent airstrikes, drone operations, and cross-border ground incursions, and establishing a network of semi-permanent military outposts. While the KRG shares Turkey’s opposition to the PKK and quietly facilitates Turkish operations, it faces growing domestic backlash over civilian harm, displacement, and erosion of sovereignty.
Despite recurring tensions, both sides prioritize stability and mutual interests over confrontation. Turkey gains strategic depth against the PKK, while the KRG preserves critical economic lifelines and political viability. The result is a transactional relationship marked by cooperation without trust and security without full sovereignty.
Iraqi Kurds remain the most politically empowered Kurdish community in the Middle East, although their autonomy has narrowed in recent years. Not less intriguing is the story of another Kurdish autonomy, in Iraq’s western neighbor – Syria.
This article is also available as a Podcast: the AiTME Podcast. This Podcast was written and created by Avi Melamed, Middle East Intelligence Analyst and Founder of Inside The Middle East [ITME], an institute dedicated to apolitical, non-partisan education about the Middle East.
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Iraq: South Kurdistan (Iraqi Kurdistan) Episode 3 | AiTME #20 | An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
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