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Avi Melamed quoted by David Averre and James Reynold in the article For Daily Mail, Hezbollah fires ballistic missile at Mossad HQ: Group targets Tel Aviv base in revenge for pager bomb attacks as it ‘gears up for ground war with Israel in Lebanon’.
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Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed added that the evacuation of tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians from their homes has the additional advantage of ramping internal pressure on Hezbollah and Lebanese authorities.
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Hezbollah said Wednesday it had fired a ballistic missile targeting Israeli spy agency Mossad’s headquarters near Tel Aviv as its fighters prepare for a possible ground war with the IDF in Lebanon.
It is the first time the group has claimed a ballistic missile strike since its nearly year-long battle with Israel began after Hamas carried out its October 7 attack.
‘The Islamic Resistance launched a ‘Qader 1′ ballistic missile at 6:30 am (0330 GMT) on Wednesday, targeting the Mossad headquarters in the outskirts of Tel Aviv,’ Hezbollah said in a statement.
‘This headquarters is responsible for the assassination of leaders and the explosion of pagers and wireless devices,’ it added, referring to attacks last week that killed scores in Lebanon, including a top commander.
The Iranian-made Qader is a medium-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile with multiple types and payloads.
It can carry an explosive payload of up to 800kg (1,760 pounds), according to the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Iranian officials have described the liquid-fuelled missile as having a range of 2,000km (1,240 miles).
Israel said its air defences had shot down a Hezbollah missile after sirens sounded in Tel Aviv. No casualties were reported.
Lt Col Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesperson, said the missile had a ‘heavy warhead’ but declined to elaborate or confirm it was the type described by Hezbollah.
The ballistic missile launch comes hours after Israel said it had killed Ibrahim Qubaisi – another top Hezbollah commander and director of the group’s missile and rocket unit – in a strike on Beirut on Tuesday.
Israel this morning continued its campaign of near-round-the-clock strikes on Hezbollah targets across southern and eastern Lebanon, which have killed 569 people and wounded more than 1,800 since Monday, according to Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad.
The foreign ministers of Egypt, Iraq and Jordan condemned Israel’s ‘aggression’ against Lebanon this morning, warning that it is ‘pushing the region towards all-out war’.
And Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel’s killing of top Hezbollah commanders couldn’t bring the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group to its knees.
‘Some of the effective and valuable forces of Hezbollah were martyred, which undoubtedly caused damage to Hezbollah, but this was not the sort of damage that could bring the group to its knees,’ he said in meeting with military personnel and veterans of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
‘The organisational and human strength of Hezbollah is much more than that. Their authority, capabilities and strength are much more than that and cannot be seriously affected by these martyrdoms.’
But Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said the attacks had weakened Hezbollah and would continue.
Hezbollah ‘has suffered a sequence of blows to its command and control, its fighters, and the means to fight. These are all severe blows,’ he told Israeli troops.
Now fears are growing that the IDF could launch an armed incursion across the border in an attempt to create a ‘buffer zone’ by forcing Hezbollah fighters further north of the border.
Israel last week declared that securing the northern territories so displaced Israelis can return to their homes became a formal goal of its war effort, but military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has refused to give a timeline for the ongoing operation.
Given the efficacy of its missile, drone and airstrikes on Hezbollah targets to this point, the IDF may opt to continue in this vein, aiming to degrade the Lebanese group’s military capabilities and supply routes in the east and south of Lebanon without risking soldiers on the ground.
Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed added that the evacuation of tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians from their homes has the additional advantage of ramping internal pressure on Hezbollah and Lebanese authorities.
‘Israel last week conducted a successful airstrike that eliminated the upper echelon of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force,’ he said.
‘Now, Israel has begun utilising intelligence developed over the last 18 years to strike at Hezbollah’s weapon caches, many of which have been concealed in residential homes.
‘For Iran and Hezbollah, the mass exodus of families from southern Lebanon to the north poses a growing threat of civil unrest that could undermine Hezbollah’s influence and, by extension, Tehran’s control over Lebanon.’
However, much like Hamas, Hezbollah has developed an intricate web of underground tunnels and is deeply entrenched in towns and cities across southern Lebanon.
The IDF will never be able to guarantee a total eradication of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces and military capabilities close to the border by airstrikes alone.
And Hezbollah has an extensive stockpile of missiles and rockets which in theory could threaten air force planes and overwhelm Israeli air defences if fired en-masse.
In the absence of a ceasefire deal and a cessation of hostilities, the IDF may turn to a limited ground operation to force its foe away from the border and guarantee the security of settlements in northern Israel.
Miri Eisen, a senior fellow at Israel’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University and former IDF Colonel, said a limited ground incursion could be ordered to ensure Hezbollah can not carry out anything similar to Hamas’s October 7 attack.
‘I do think that there’s the possibility of a ground incursion because in the end we need to move the Hezbollah forces (away from the border),’ she said.
The mouth of the Litani River, often used as a rough marker to illustrate a theoretical buffer zone, is 18 miles from the border, but in some places comes within two miles of Israeli-controlled territory.
Major Moshiko Giat, an IDF special forces soldier with combat experience in Israel’s 2006 war with Lebanon, told the Telegraph he believes such a buffer zone would be roughly six to 12 miles deep.
But even a limited operation such as this would constitute a major military undertaking – and carries significant risks.
Drawing from the strategy used in previous conflicts, such an operation would likely involve several IDF divisions, with estimates suggesting around 10,000 to 30,000 troops would be needed to clear the area and establish a clear buffer zone.
Hezbollah’s fighting force, which measures between 25,000 and 50,000 according to various Israeli and US estimates, has honed its tactics through decades of conflict – including their successful resistance against Israeli forces during the 2006 war in which Major Giat fought.
Hezbollah boasts a range of anti-tank and anti-air systems, dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles, and its fighters are adept at guerrilla warfare, intimately familiar with the terrain, and would enjoy the advantage of highly fortified positions.
Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher on Hezbollah who is based at Cardiff University, said of the group: ‘It is extremely capable – and I would say more effective than Israel – when it comes to ground war, underground offensive, and we’ve seen this historically, particularly in 2006,’ she said.
Founder of the Israel Defence and Security Forum, former IDF Brigadier General Amir Avivi, insisted to the Telegraph that such an operation would be more than manageable, suggesting it would take ‘a few weeks’ to clear the area south of the Litani river of Hezbollah forces.
‘Lebanon is not as densely populated as Gaza, and the towns and villages in southern Lebanon are pretty empty. This is not going to be as complicated as what we saw in Gaza.
‘I think it can take a few weeks because it’s going to be very, very intensive. And also there will be huge pressure inside Lebanon on Hezbollah to stop… I would assume that the war is not going to be long.’
But Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said last week a ground incursion would turn southern Lebanon into a death trap for Israeli fighters, adding that his troops could fight Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and fire rockets at northern Israel at the same time.
The intensifying violence between Israel and Hezbollah has stoked fears among international observers that the conflict could spiral into a regional war that engulfs the Middle East.
The UN Security Council said it would meet on Wednesday to discuss the conflict.
‘Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon – the people of Israel – and the people of the world – cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza,’ UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said.
The ministers of Egypt, Iraq and Jordan said that stopping the ‘dangerous escalation under way in the region… begins by halting Israel’s aggression in Gaza’, in a joint statement issued after a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.
Many analysts feel that negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza is the main path to simultaneously ending hostilities in Lebanon.
This presents Hezbollah an off-ramp, and could even allow its leader Nasrallah to spin a narrative that his resistance in the face of Israeli aggression played a role in supporting the plight of the Palestinian people and putting an end to the war 180 kilometres to the south.
But Professor Andreas Krieg, Senior Lecturer in Security Studies at King’s College London, expressed scepticism, telling MailOnline: ‘We’re far away from a negotiated settlement in Gaza, and I don’t see the Netanyahu government making any concessions.’
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised ‘total victory’ over Hamas and the return of all the hostages held in Gaza – goals that many believe are simply unachievable.
What’s more, many analysts and observers accuse Netanyahu of having a personal stake in forging on with war in Gaza.
His governing coalition relies on far-right ministers who want to permanently reoccupy the Palestinian enclave and have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much.
That would force early elections that could drive him from power at a time when he is on trial for corruption – charges that he will not face while war rages on.
Half a million people are estimated to have been displaced in Lebanon already, said Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib.
He said Lebanon’s prime minister hoped to meet with US officials over the next two days to discuss a way out of the conflict.
In Beirut, thousands of displaced people who fled from southern Lebanon were sheltering in schools and other buildings.
Sir Keir Starmer said in a stark warning yesterday that UK citizens should flee Lebanon as Britain ‘ramps up’ contingency plans for a desperate evacuation.
Hundreds of Royal Marine commandos, sailors and combat engineers were deployed to the Mediterranean overnight as part of a potential ‘Dunkirk-style’ rescue of up to 10,000 British citizens.
A 700-strong force is being rushed to the region following approval from Downing Street of evacuation plans drawn up by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), with warships stationed in the region poised to facilitate evacuations.
The mission template, known in military circles as ‘Operation Meteoric’, could see commandos making beach landings in Lebanon with UK citizens escorted on to a flotilla of military vessels.
The operation would be ‘green-lit’ should routes out of the war-torn country, such as international air corridors, be closed down.
The Foreign Office echoed the warnings to leave Lebanon ‘immediately’ in a statement shared late Tuesday, continuing to advise against all travel to Lebanon ‘as the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly’ with ‘devastating consequences’.
Yesterday, commercial carriers including British Airways were already cancelling flights to and from the region.
Other countries, including Egypt, began restricting passage on Monday.
Amphibious troops would spearhead the rescue bid while the RAF, flying from the UK’s airbase on Cyprus, would provide ‘top cover’.
British troops are expected to be deployed to nearby Cyprus to help those waiting to support citizens trapped amid fears a regional war could soon break out.
Royal Navy ships RFA Mounts Bay and HMS Duncan have been in the eastern Mediterranean region to support allies all summer.
The Royal Air Force also have aircraft and transport helicopters on standby to provide support if necessary, and the Foreign Office said Border Force and FCDO officials would be on hand to support military units.
Despite repeated government pleas, thousands of UK citizens have opted to remain in Lebanon as security in the country has worsened.
But Defence Secretary John Healey said last night: ‘Events in the past hours and days have demonstrated how volatile this situation is which is why our message is clear – British nationals should leave now.
‘We continue to urge all sides to step back from conflict to prevent further tragic loss of life.
‘Government is ensuring all preparations are in place to support British nationals should the situation deteriorate.’
Avi Melamed quoted by David Averre and James Reynold in the article For Daily Mail, Hezbollah fires ballistic missile at Mossad HQ: Group targets Tel Aviv base in revenge for pager bomb attacks as it ‘gears up for ground war with Israel in Lebanon’.
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