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Iran wants to mass-produce missiles, Israel says it may strike again | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted by Ryan Robertson (Anchor), STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS.
When Israel and Iran entered a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire on June 24 after the so-called “12-Day War,” neither side truly believed the conflict was over. In the months since, both governments treated the ceasefire not as closure, but more as a reset — each preparing intensively for the next round. Now, Iran is vowing to build enough missiles to fire 2,000 at once, a scale unseen in modern warfare.
The war in June demonstrated Israel’s ability to devastate Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure. Iran lost roughly half its missile arsenal, most of its launchers and several uranium enrichment centers. At least 1,060 died according to the Iranian government, with the Washington-based Human Rights Activists group putting that number at 1,190.
But the war also revealed Israel’s vulnerability to massed barrages, even with U.S. help. Only about three dozen missiles made it through, but dozens of Israelis were killed as a result, thousands were injured and there was visible damage across multiple cities.
Iran responded to those lessons by accelerating a 24-hour missile-production campaign, openly signaling that the next war will aim to overwhelm Israeli defenses through sheer volume. Yet experts say Tehran faces crippling obstacles: degraded proxies, inadequate air defenses and missile forces that remain largely exposed during launch preparations.
With both nations signaling they are ready for the next confrontation, the Middle East is entering a period of extreme volatility where miscalculation alone could trigger a conflict far larger than the last one.
Iran’s new goal: Build enough missiles to fire 2,000 at once
In October, The New York Times reported Iran shifted toward what officials called “mass-strike readiness,” putting its missile factories into around-the-clock production. Tehran’s stated objective: accumulate sufficient inventory to launch 2,000 ballistic missiles simultaneously at Israel.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told the Times Iran’s strategy is simple: “If there is another war, they hope to fire 2,000 missiles at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days as they did in June.”
While Iran may be attempting to scale up production rapidly, it will likely require assistance from Russia, China or North Korea to produce the necessary missile components at that rate.
Iran’s recent threats reflect not only strategic ambition but acute vulnerability. Avi Melamed is a former Israel Defense Forces intelligence officer and founder of Inside the Middle East. He said the dangers posed by Iran should not be dismissed.
“I would take it very seriously,” Melamed said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that currently the Iranians have that capacity. I don’t think that at this moment they have this capacity, but we definitely should be taking it very seriously.”
With no real proxies, Iran bets everything on missiles
For decades, Iran’s regional strategy relied on the “Axis of Resistance,” which were proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Those groups absorbed Iranian losses, extended its reach and tied down Israel. But recent confrontations over the last couple of years with the IDF have left many of those forces mostly dead, or at the very least severely degraded.
Without its proxies, Melamed said Tehran must rely on its own hardware: ballistic missiles, drones and a damaged air-defense system.
Iranian leadership has responded to the June war with a public vow to rebuild and expand its missile program. Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini said Iran’s missile forces “deter and defeat Iranian adversaries,” signaling that Iran sees missile power as its only viable remaining tool of regional coercion.
The weak link: Iran cannot launch missiles from underground
Iran stores most of its missiles and launchers in underground tunnels. But as the Middle East Forum notes, Iran still lacks silo-launch capability. That means every missile must be brought above ground, fueled, prepared, and aimed — steps that take anywhere from tens of minutes to many hours for liquid-fueled systems.
During the June fighting, Israel exploited this vulnerability mercilessly. The Israeli Air Force first neutralized Iran’s air defenses and then conducted strike after strike on missile bases and mobile launchers, forcing Iran to disperse or hide equipment that could not be made ready under fire.
As a result, Iran never fired more than about 70 missiles in any single barrage. The same weakness persists today.
“To the best of our knowledge and understanding, the Iranians are putting priority in rebuilding their aerial defense capacities,” Melamed explained. “And here they have some challenges, because again, they are dependent upon importing those systems from major potential suppliers of advanced systems — China or Russia or North Korea. China is reluctant, to this point, to provide Iran with those capacities because of the UN sanctions. Russia is also not rushing to provide the Iranians with its most advanced anti-air capacities. And so in that regard, Iranians are facing some significant challenges, because they do realize that in any case they must first restore those capacities.”
Israel has unfinished business
Top Israeli officials have said repeatedly that while the June offensive was paused under U.S. pressure, Israel sees no barrier to resuming strikes if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program or reconstitute advanced missile capabilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in July, “If anyone in Iran tries to rebuild the nuclear program, we will act with the same determination, with the same intensity, to foil any attempt.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz similarly warned Israel would enforce a policy preventing Iran from rebuilding its air power or long-range missile program.
Israeli analysts believe the next conflict will be longer and harsher. A security official said on Israeli television that the nation would respond “far more forcefully” next time.
Nuclear program crippled – but not dead
The June war dealt catastrophic damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. used B-2 stealth bombers to strike three sites, including Fordow, while Israel destroyed two enrichment centers and more than 20,000 centrifuges across multiple facilities. The Institute for Science and International Security says Iran no longer has a clear short-term path to weapons-grade uranium.
But Iran insists its nuclear ambitions remain intact.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said, “As long as we are NPT members, we will abide by our commitments. Inspectors visited several facilities, including the Tehran Research Reactor.”
At the same time, Iran maintains it has an “inalienable” right to enrichment and claims the only reason enrichment stopped is that its facilities were destroyed, not because Iran agreed to halt.
Neither Israeli nor U.S. officials really believe Iran intends to abandon its nuclear program long-term.
A dangerous lull: Both sides expect war to resume
Despite heated rhetoric, there is no conclusive evidence a new war is imminent. But both sides publicly acknowledge they are preparing for one.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently warned that Tehran would target Israel “in a more decisive manner” if the ceasefire collapsed. Senior adviser Yahya Rahim Safavi said, “We are not in a ceasefire, we are in a stage of war.”
Israelis echo the sentiment. As Vaez told the Times, “Israel feels the job is unfinished and sees no reason not to resume the conflict.”
The quiet may simply be a chance for both sides to rebuild damaged capabilities before the next strike.
Iran’s push to mass-produce missiles reflects not only its desire to deter Israel, but also the extensive and pervasive damage Israel inflicted in the last war. Israel, for its part, continues to warn any renewed nuclear activity or missile buildup will trigger immediate military action.
Neither side wants to appear weak. Neither side trusts the other. And both believe the next war is not a matter of if, but when.
Iran wants to mass-produce missiles, Israel says it may strike again | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted by Ryan Robertson (Anchor), STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS.
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