路透社:哈瑪斯與以色列開戰 伊朗或感身陷兩難 | HK01 – HONG KONG

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Avi Melamed insights quoted in the article by 藺思含 for HK01 – HONG KONG “路透社:哈瑪斯與以色列開戰 伊朗或感身陷兩難”

據路透社引述9位不具名伊朗官員稱,隨着巴勒斯坦武裝組織哈馬斯發動的戰事不斷升級,伊朗作為該組織的長期幕後支持者,陷入了究竟是放棄對哈馬斯的支持、削弱自身地區霸主地位,還是介入戰爭、承受重大損失的兩難處境,德黑蘭正試圖管控這場持續惡化的危機。

上週,伊朗外交部長阿卜杜拉希揚(Hossein Amir-Abdollahian)向以色列發出了公開警告,稱若不停止對加沙的攻擊,伊朗將被迫採取行動。惟幾小時後,伊朗駐聯合國代表團便調整態度,保證除非以色列攻擊伊朗利益或公民,否則伊朗軍隊不會介入衝突。

這些匿名官員表示,伊朗若保持旁觀,會損害伊朗數十年來支持巴勒斯坦、黎巴嫩等區內伊斯蘭武裝組織的努力,削弱自身身為地區霸主的地位。然而,對有美國支持的以色列發動攻擊必將給伊朗造成慘重損失,並在國內陷經濟危機的情況下,引發民眾對該國伊斯蘭統治者的憤怒。一位伊朗高級外交官說,伊朗最高精神領袖哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)最優先考慮的是伊朗的生存。

3位安全官員稱,該國最高決策者目前已達成共識:允許其盟友黎巴嫩真主黨對以色列軍事目標發動有限的越境襲擊,並允許該地區的其他盟友組織對美國目標發動小規模襲擊,同時防止將伊朗捲入衝突。他們又指,伊朗此次若無所作為,可能會被代理勢力視為軟弱的跡象,或打擊伊朗的地位。

前以色列情報官員、兩次參與以巴和平談判的代表Avi Melamed說稱, 「要否派真主黨去作戰,以試圖拯救他們在加沙走廊的分支?或是放手讓這個分支離去和放棄它?伊朗人正面臨這種兩難局面。」

真主黨及伊朗或捲入戰事 布林肯:中東地區戰事可能升級以色列稱真主黨參戰會為黎巴嫩帶來「災難」 伊朗會遭軍事攻擊美國制裁參與伊朗無人機項目中國公司及個人 包括港人港企伊朗嚴厲警告 暗示攻打以色列:未來數小時內或先發制人

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Avi Melamed
Avi Melamedhttps://insidethemiddle-east.com
Avi Melamed is an expert on current affairs in the Arab & Muslim World and their impact on Israel & the Middle East. A former Israeli Intelligence Official & Senior Official on Arab Affairs, Fluent in Arabic, English, and Hebrew, he has held high-risk Government, Senior Advisory, Intelligence & Counter-Terrorist intelligence positions in Arab cities & communities - often in very sensitive times - on behalf of Israeli Government agencies. He is the Founder & CEO of Inside the Middle East | Intelligence Perspectives - an apolitical non-partisan curriculum using intelligence methodology to examine the Middle East. As an Author, Educator, Expert, and Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Avi provides Intelligence Analysis, Briefings, and Geopolitical Tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policymakers, global media outlets, and a wide variety of international businesses, organizations, and private clients on a range of Israel and Middle East Affairs.

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