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Is Syria’s new leadership pragmatic or a wolf in sheep’s clothing? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network | This article has already published in more that 227 other media and newspapers.
3-minute read
A new chapter in Syria’s long and bloody history is unfolding, and its opening pages are already soaked in blood. The fall of the Assad regime was supposed to mark a turning point, yet a new conflict has erupted — this time along Syria’s coastal region, where the Alawite minority faces a brutal reckoning.
For half a century, Syria’s Alawite minority dominated the country under the Assad dynasty, securing power through military control and suppressing Sunni opposition. Now, with the rise of a Sunni Islamist-led government, the Alawites find themselves on the defensive — targeted by the very forces that until recently, they ruled over.
A new power, a familiar conflict
The new Syrian government, which emerged after Assad’s downfall, is led by Syria’s new president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa — better known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the former leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist militant group. Once labeled a radical jihadist, seeking legitimacy on the world stage, Al-Sharaa has rebranded himself as a pragmatic leader.
But his rise has reignited old sectarian tensions, particularly among the Alawites, who fear retribution for their past dominance. Those fears are quickly becoming reality.
A cycle of revenge and bloodshed
The Alawites, fearing massacre at the hands of the new regime, have formed the Coastal Defense Brigade, an armed militia determined to protect their community. While the Syrian government claims the recent clashes were provoked by Alawite militias, the Alawites accuse government forces of carrying out systematic massacres — forcing them to take up arms in self-defense.
The violence has already claimed more than 1,000 lives, with reports of executions, civilian abuse, and atrocities surfacing from the region.
For Syria’s new rulers, the stakes are high. Al-Sharaa has carefully cultivated an image of moderation, aiming to distance his government from its radical Islamist roots. His administration has pledged to draft a new constitution and promote reconciliation and reconstruction rather than prolonged conflict. But for this vision to succeed, two key conditions must be met:
- He and his government must gain the trust of Western nations, particularly the United States, to ensure the regime is seen as a stabilizing force rather than a security threat.
- He must secure financial aid from Gulf states — especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to rebuild Syria’s shattered economy.
To achieve these goals, Al-Sharaa has launched an aggressive diplomatic outreach campaign, meeting with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Qatar. His message is clear: Syria has rejoined the Arab fold and seeks to be a stabilizing force, not a source of further chaos.
A wolf in sheep’s clothing?
Yet the bloodshed in Syria’s coastal region has fueled skepticism about the true nature of Al-Sharaa’s government. Many regional actors suspect that the new regime, far from being a force for peace, is simply an Islamist power cloaked in pragmatism.
The massacre of Alawite civilians which, by all indications, appears to be an act of ethnic revenge — only strengthens this suspicion. While much of the Arab world has accepted the regime’s narrative that these killings were acts of self-defense and that Hezbollah and Iran were behind the violence, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
Understanding the need for damage control, the Syrian government has announced an investigative committee to examine the events. Whether this is a genuine effort at accountability or a calculated attempt to deflect international scrutiny remains to be seen.
Implications for Syria’s other minorities
The Alawites are not the only ones watching these developments with apprehension. Syria’s Kurds and Druze —two other minority groups — have long feared persecution under Islamist-led governments. Both have been targeted by Sunni extremist factions in the past and remain deeply distrustful of the new regime.
As a result, they have maintained independent paramilitary forces to defend their communities — a strategy that now appears more justified than ever. The recent bloodshed in Syria’s coastal region only reinforces their fears and strengthens their resolve to maintain autonomy.
Israel’s strategic calculations
Syria’s turmoil is reshaping Israel’s security strategy along the two countries’ shared ceasefire line. The Israeli government views the new Syrian regime as dangerous. In response, Israel has adopted a policy of active deterrence based on two key pillars:
- A Military Presence in Syria — Israel has reinforced its positions in the Golan Heights, ensuring it maintains a strategic foothold in southwestern Syria while projecting military deterrence toward Damascus.
- Strengthening alliances with the Druze and Kurds — Israel has publicly committed to military protection for Syria’s Druze community and is working to deepen ties with both Druze and Kurdish forces in Syria.
This dual-pronged strategy is designed to counterbalance the influence of the new Syrian regime and prevent Syria from once again becoming a launchpad for hostilities against Israel.
The uncertain future of Syria
The fall of Assad initially sparked hope that, after decades of dictatorship and more than a decade of war, Syria might finally be on a path toward stability, pluralism and economic recovery. However, the recent violence underscores a sobering reality: the sectarian rivalries, deep-seated animosities and historical grievances that fueled Syria’s civil war have not vanished with Assad’s downfall.
Some Syrian factions argue that the only viable path to rebuilding the country is a federal system — one that divides governance along geographic and ethnic lines to ensure greater autonomy for minority groups.
But Al-Sharaa’s government outright rejects this notion. Instead, the regime insists that a unified national constitution will provide fair and equitable representation for all sects within a single national framework.
Yet, can a new constitution alone erase decades of mutual distrust, bloodshed, and sectarian strife? Can legal frameworks replace the lived experiences of communities that have suffered at each other’s hands?
For now, Syria’s future remains uncertain. The dream of stability is fading as old sectarian wounds reopen. Whether Syria’s new leadership is truly seeking reconciliation — or merely consolidating power under a different flag — will determine whether the country rebuilds or remains trapped in endless bloodshed.
Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas. He is the author of “Inside The Middle East: Entering A New Era,” and his latest docuseries, “The Seam Line,” available on the Izzy streaming platform, focuses on Jerusalem’s flashpoints and his work during the intifadas.
Is Syria’s new leadership pragmatic or a wolf in sheep’s clothing? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network | This article has already published in more that 227 other media and newspapers.
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