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The Flare-Up in Southern Syria Challenges Both Israel and the New Syrian Regime | AiTME #2 | An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
The renewed clashes between the Druze and Bedouin tribes in southern Syria present a challenge to both Israel and the new Syrian regime.
The Syrian Perspective:
The flare-up has exposed the key challenges facing Syrian President al-Shara in his efforts to stabilize his control over Syria and set the country on a path of reconstruction. Firstly, there is the fact that between the various groups in Syria, there exists a long history of hostility often marked by outbreaks of violence. Secondly, nearly all groups in Syria possess weapons, and some are organized into paramilitary formations. Thirdly, minority groups in Syria—Kurds, Druze, and Alawites—fear for their safety due to the Salafi Jihadi background of the new regime, and feel excluded from the process of shaping a new Syrian constitution. For these groups, a federal framework offers at least a partial answer to their interests. Finally, of course, Syria is devastated, and its population faces extremely harsh daily conditions.
Al-Shara, who has adopted a moderate and pragmatic approach, has thus far gained international legitimacy, notably from the United States and from major regional actors, who are committed to supporting him in the effort to rebuild Syria. However, the crisis in Sweida, which was accompanied by atrocities committed by all parties—including, as far as is known, by regime forces themselves—casts a shadow over the legitimacy that the new regime had earned. It has revived concerns and suspicions that the regime has not truly broken from its Salafi-Jihadi radical and violent roots.
The Israeli Perspective:
The flare-up has placed Israel in a problematic position. During the crisis, Israel violated two red lines it had previously set regarding the situation in Syria. The first was its opposition to the deployment of Syrian regime forces in southern Syria and near the separation line on the Golan Heights. Israel does not share the prevailing assessment in the international and regional arenas that, despite its radical roots, the new regime in Syria is now moderate and pragmatic. Israel believes the new regime is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
The second red line was Israel’s commitment to protect the Druze in Syria. This commitment stems from two main factors: first, Israel sees the Druze in Syria as potential allies who could provide an important component of Israel’s defense posture toward the Syrian arena; second, Israel fears that Druze citizens of Israel—some of whom serve in the IDF—may feel compelled to assist their Druze brethren in Syria, a scenario that greatly worries Israel. Indeed, at the onset of the crisis, Israel took vigorous military action that demonstrated its commitment to both red lines.
However, in a short time, Israeli policy underwent a reversal, as evidenced by Israel’s consent to the deployment of Syrian regime forces in the Sweida area. This shift in Israeli policy likely stems from two factors: one is the position of the United States. The Trump administration granted full legitimacy to Syria’s new president, al-Shara, and expressed willingness to help him stabilize his rule in Syria. Accordingly, the U.S. voiced reservations about Israel’s military involvement in the southern Syria crisis. Another possible explanation is that Israeli assessments suggest that the entry of regime forces would halt the escalating bloodshed between the Druze and the Bedouin tribes, who had rushed to aid their kin in Sweida. Israel may believe that the deployment of regime forces in Sweida will end the clashes between the Druze and Arab tribes, thereby sparing Israel from being drawn into deeper involvement in southern Syria.
Either way, the reversal in Israeli policy during the Sweida crisis has made Israel’s worst-case scenario more tangible. Reportedly, 2,000 Israeli Druze—some of whom serve in the IDF, either in regular or reserve service—signed a petition volunteering to assist their brethren in Syria. The policy reversal sparked anger among Druze in both Syria and Israel, as well as in the Golan Heights, who feel Israel has betrayed them. In a sense, Israel has shot itself in the foot. Israel’s conduct during the crisis has somewhat eroded the image of strength it had rightly earned after inflicting military defeat on Hezbollah and Iran. In current Arab discourse, the narrative is being amplified that Israel is a power that cannot be trusted.
The outbreak of violence between Druze and Bedouin tribes in Syria is not unprecedented, nor did it arise out of nowhere. This has been a persistent reality characterizing the relations between these groups for generations. The recent flare-up in Sweida again illustrates one of my central observations about the region: in the Middle East, history is the present. The atrocities committed by all parties involved highlight another, tragic aspect of the region—its ingrained violence. In the violent neighborhood known as the Middle East, the weak have no future.
This article is also available as a Podcast: the AiTME Podcast. This Podcast was written and created by Avi Melamed, Middle East Intelligence Analyst and Founder of Inside The Middle East [ITME], an institute dedicated to apolitical, non-partisan education about the Middle East.
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The Flare-Up in Southern Syria Challenges Both Israel and the New Syrian Regime | AiTME #2 | An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
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