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Ceasefire will test Lebanon’s ability to regain control from Hezbollah, analyst says | Avi Melamed quoted By Kathleen Magramo for CNN.
“Looking ahead, the challenge of restoring Lebanese sovereignty is the most key of issues, especially in light of Hezbollah’s dominance in the country,” Avi Melamed said.
“Overall, the situation remains highly precarious. Hezbollah, while weakened, still plays a significant role, and the question remains whether it will rebuild its strength, setting the stage for a more intense future conflict,” Melamed said.
“If Hezbollah will be able to rebuild its military infrastructure in South Lebanon, it could lead to another round of violence. However, if its power is effectively restrained, particularly by Western intervention, including a robust response from the US under the new administration, Lebanon might be able to regain more control over its sovereignty.”
The Lebanese government’s actions following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal will be crucial in determining whether the militant group can continue imposing its will on Lebanon, according to a former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst.
“Looking ahead, the challenge of restoring Lebanese sovereignty is the most key of issues, especially in light of Hezbollah’s dominance in the country,” Avi Melamed said.
Some background: Iran-backed Hezbollah is believed to be the most heavily armed non-state group in the world. A UN resolution to end the month-long Israel-Lebanon war in 2006 called on Beirut “to exercise its full sovereignty.” But Hezbollah has remained powerful in the country, which has been without a president or fully empowered cabinet since October 2022.
“Overall, the situation remains highly precarious. Hezbollah, while weakened, still plays a significant role, and the question remains whether it will rebuild its strength, setting the stage for a more intense future conflict,” Melamed said.
The ceasefire deal, which took effect early Wednesday morning, stipulates a 60-day cessation of hostilities in which Hezbollah fighters are expected to retreat 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Israel-Lebanon border, while Israeli ground forces withdraw from Lebanese territory.
Under the agreement, Lebanon would implement a more rigorous supervision of Hezbollah’s movements south of the country’s Litani river, to prevent militants from regrouping there.
UN troops, the Lebanese military and a multinational committee will be tasked with supervising the Iran-backed group’s movements. Israel has vowed to resume military operations in case of a breach of the agreement.
“If Hezbollah will be able to rebuild its military infrastructure in South Lebanon, it could lead to another round of violence. However, if its power is effectively restrained, particularly by Western intervention, including a robust response from the US under the new administration, Lebanon might be able to regain more control over its sovereignty.”
Ceasefire will test Lebanon’s ability to regain control from Hezbollah, analyst says | Avi Melamed quoted By Kathleen Magramo for CNN.
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