Iraq is on the Verge of a Violent Sunni–Shiite Confrontation

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

Iraq is on the Verge of a Violent Sunni–Shiite Confrontation | Immediate Intelligence Bulletin

*******

Information Date: March 20, 2013

Event Date: March 2013

Information: Iraq is on the verge of a violent Sunni–Shiite confrontation

Information Details: According to varied neutral sources, the Sunni tribal leaders in the Al-Anbar province in western Iraq ordered their members to arm themselves immediately in order to confront Iraqi military forces heading towards the Al-Anbar area.

Information Platform: Varied

Platform Reliability: Varies

Source: Neutral, Varied

Source Reliability: Unknown

Information Validity: Unknown

Relevant Information:

The majority of Iraqis are Shiites.

The Al-Anbar region in western Iraq is the major stronghold of Sunnis in Iraq.

Sunni-Shiite relations in Iraq are characterized by a long history of animosity and violence.

Accumulating information indicates a growing rage among Iraqi Sunnis for a variety of reasons including:

  • The support of the current Iraqi government for the Assad regime due to pressure from Iran on the Iraqi government to do so
  • The fact that Iranian arms and military reinforcements to support Assad make their way through Iraq
  • The involvement of the Iranian backed Iraqi Shiite Militia called the “Al Mahdi Army” in the war in Syria
  • Growing feelings of being discriminated against by the predominantly Shiite Iraqi government

This rage was most recently expressed in stormy demonstrations of Sunnis that swept the Al- Anbar area. Reportedly, following the demonstrations, the Iraqi government ordered the arrest of Ali Al-Hatim Suleiman, the Leader of the Al-Dalim Sunni Tribes.

Assessment:

Sunni-Shiite relations in Iraq are traditionally tense and sensitive.

The combination of political instability in Iraq; the growing tension between the Sunnis and the predominately Shiite Iraqi government; the continuing daily bloodshed in Iraqi cities and the huge amounts of weapons stored by both sides presents the constant threat of a violent confrontation.

The war in Syria significantly increases the odds for such a confrontation.

Iraqi Sunni militants are already involved in the war in Syria. Many of them are members of the Sunni Militant Islam Group of Jabhat Al Nusrah which is affiliated with Al-Qaida and they fight against the Assad regime and its allies – the Shiites of Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as well as Iraqi Shiites.

The war in Syria has already infiltrated Lebanon and threatens to spark a Sunni-Shiite confrontation inside Lebanon. A similar process could very well take place in Iraq as well. A clear sign of this mounting tension occurred earlier this month when Al-Qaida claimed responsibility for killing 48 Syrian soldiers and 7 Iraqi soldiers in an attack on an Iraqi-Syrian border-crossing in Al-Ya-Rubyia located in the Al-Anbar province.

End Intelligence Bulletin

*******

If you want to have a better understanding of the news and what really drives the unfolding events…
Read the latest book of Avi Melamed,
INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST | ENTERING A NEW ERA, available now >>>

Follow me on Twitter @AviMelamed; Facebook @InsideTheMiddleEast; for more Videos on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/AviMelamed

I can always be reached at Av*@Av********.com

Avi Melamed
Avi Melamedhttps://insidethemiddle-east.com
Avi Melamed is an expert on current affairs in the Arab & Muslim World and their impact on Israel & the Middle East. A former Israeli Intelligence Official & Senior Official on Arab Affairs, Fluent in Arabic, English, and Hebrew, he has held high-risk Government, Senior Advisory, Intelligence & Counter-Terrorist intelligence positions in Arab cities & communities - often in very sensitive times - on behalf of Israeli Government agencies. He is the Founder & CEO of Inside the Middle East | Intelligence Perspectives - an apolitical non-partisan curriculum using intelligence methodology to examine the Middle East. As an Author, Educator, Expert, and Strategic Intelligence Analyst, Avi provides Intelligence Analysis, Briefings, and Geopolitical Tours to diplomats, Israeli and foreign policymakers, global media outlets, and a wide variety of international businesses, organizations, and private clients on a range of Israel and Middle East Affairs.

JOIN THE HUB Newsletter

BUY THE BOOK

New book by Avi Melamed, acclaimed intelligence & geopolitical analyst - Inside the middle east | Entering a new era | published in 2022

MORE FROM ITME

Will Iran Deepen its Intervention in Iraq?

Will Iran Deepen its Intervention in Iraq? Information: Since the Mullah regime seized power in Iran in 1979, their goal has been to “Export the Islamic...

The Israel-Gaza War | My Message to Western Leaders

This message to Western Leaders follows a series of seven videos in which I outlined the events leading up to the Israel-Gaza War 2021. https://youtu.be/qSQf1flGc5U https://youtu.be/JEOgB771Pq8 If...

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise

Wikistrat Next Generation Strategy Ask a Sr. Analyst Exercise Editor’s Note: Wikistrat’s Facebook followers recently engaged in a 24-hour exclusive Q&A drill with one of Wikistrat’s Senior...

The Killing of a Key Hamas Military Leader is Important for Israel | USA TODAY

The killing of a key Hamas military leader is important for Israel. But how important? | Avi Melamed special to the USA TODAY Network...

The UAE Resistance Union Against Normalization

The UAE Resistance Union Against Normalization appeared in August 2020. The term 'union' is somewhat confusing because it is not a structured organization but...