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Israel’s Iron Dome system is running out of ammunition and a joint Hezbollah/Iran missile strike could overwhelm defences – as US warns it can’t keep supplying IDF AND Ukraine | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by By David Averre, Originally published in The Daily Mail.
Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed told MailOnline the move shows Washington is committed to strengthening Israel’s defences while signalling to Iran that further attacks on the Jewish state would risk inciting the wrath of the US military.
‘The deployment of the THAAD system is intended to signal that the US and Israel are operating in coordination to respond to Iran’s attacks while also mitigating the threat of the slippery slope of evolution to a major direct regional conflict.
‘It projects the message to Iran that (Israel’s expected retaliation for a recent missile strike) is likely to be significant yet restrained… it also suggests that a continued tit-for-tat will only be further devastating to Iran, with the US willing to back its allies with boots-on-the-ground deployment.’
Experts have sounded the alarm over Israel’s dwindling supply of interceptor missiles that constitute the backbone of the Jewish state’s defence against aerial threats from regional foes Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Israel enjoys the protection of a world-class air defence system that sees no less than four different kinds of ground-to-air missile platforms combine to intercept threats at short, medium and long-range threats.
The network is designed to down everything from intercontinental ballistic missiles launched thousands of miles away to unguided rockets fired from just across the border.
In the past year, the systems have fended off two major aerial assaults by Iran and near-daily rocket attacks at the northern and southern borders with Lebanon and Gaza.
The US has steadily worked to replenish its stockpiles but is also committed to supplying Ukraine’s Armed Forces with anti-air projectiles amid the ongoing war with Russia.
Now, defence officials, analysts and Israeli missile manufacturers have warned that the supply of vital projectiles is running low.
It comes as the White House declared the US military had dispatched a state-of-the-art Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system to Israel along with some 100 troops.
Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed told MailOnline the move shows Washington is committed to strengthening Israel’s defences while signalling to Iran that further attacks on the Jewish state would risk inciting the wrath of the US military.
‘The deployment of the THAAD system is intended to signal that the US and Israel are operating in coordination to respond to Iran’s attacks while also mitigating the threat of the slippery slope of evolution to a major direct regional conflict.
‘It projects the message to Iran that (Israel’s expected retaliation for a recent missile strike) is likely to be significant yet restrained… it also suggests that a continued tit-for-tat will only be further devastating to Iran, with the US willing to back its allies with boots-on-the-ground deployment.’
Israel’s state-of-the-art air defence network is composed of three broad systems using four different intercepting missiles that can detect and blast threats out of the skies at a multitude of ranges and speeds.
The targeting of guided ballistic missiles that travel quickly at higher altitudes and longer ranges is taken care of by the ‘Arrow 2 and 3’ home-grown air defence systems.
Medium-range cruise missiles are targeted by ‘David’s Sling’, developed by Israeli defence firm Rafael with American defence giant Raytheon.
But the most well-known component of the system is unquestionably the ‘Iron Dome’, which is the last line of defence reserved for short-range threats such as unguided rockets, missiles and small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The Iron Dome – the most combat-tested air defence system in the world – has been in near-constant use since Hamas’ October 7 attacks and has proven invaluable, downing countless projectiles fired into Israel from Gaza and Lebanon.
Its manufacturer, Rafael, claims the system is ’90 per cent effective’ – a figure that has been corroborated by US defence officials.
The US THAAD system currently on its way to Israel aims to bolster Israel’s short-to-medium-range capabilities, reinforcing the David’s Sling and the Arrow 2 platforms by taking down ballistic and cruise missiles.
Though Tel Aviv’s air defence programme has proven itself to be incredibly successful, there are fears it could be overwhelmed if multiple strikes are conducted simultaneously, while some have warned the system is less effective against drones that fly considerably slower than easily detectable rockets.
On Sunday, Hezbollah successfully evaded the Iron Dome, pulling off a drone strike on Israel’s Binyamina military camp where troops from the elite Golani Brigade were stationed, some 30 kilometres south of Haifa city.
The punishing blast immediately killed four people and left more than 60 injured, prompting the IDF to admit it had suffered a ‘difficult and painful blow’ before launching an investigation into why the Iron Dome and early warning systems were not triggered.
Meanwhile, a ballistic missile barrage by Iran earlier this October proved more effective than its previous assault with cruise missiles and drones in April, when 99 per cent of incoming threats were intercepted.
On October 1, several projectiles impacted targets across Israel, including the Nevatim air base, and caused significant damage to some buildings – though no casualties were reported.
Dana Stroul, a former US defence official in the Middle East, said that Israel is facing a ‘serious munitions issue’ after a year of regular anti-air operations, telling the FT: ‘If Iran responds to an Israel attack and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defences will be stretched.’
She also said that Washington cannot supply more air defence munitions to Israel indefinitely, given its responsibilities in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the chief of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) – the company which manufactures the missiles for the Arrow 2 system – admitted: ‘It is no secret we need to replenish stocks’, adding that IAI production lines are working 24/7 to produce as many munitions as possible.
Unsurprisingly, Israel’s feted air defence network is not cheap to maintain. One complete Iron Dome battery costs some £80 million to produce, and the launch of a single missile costs between £40,000 and £60,000.
The Iron Dome routinely fends off barrages of dozens of rockets at a time.
Some analysts argue that just because Iranian and Hezbollah missiles and rockets have impacted targets in Israel as of late, it doesn’t necessarily mean they managed to penetrate air defences.
Defence expert Professor Michael Clarke said the IDF may well have decided to ignore projectiles fired as part of Iran’s October 1 attack that were not deemed a major threat.
‘It’s really important to understand when we’re trying to talk about how effectively Israel’s defence system works,’ he recently told Sky News.
‘What they do is they track incoming missiles and if they think that the missile is going to land in a place that doesn’t matter they just let it go.
‘There’s no point in using a very expensive air defence missile against something that is going to fall into the middle of the desert.
‘The whole of the Iron Dome system is built on a very sophisticated monitoring system and they work out which missiles they need to intercept and which missiles they just let go.
‘And so when the Iranians claim ”lots of missiles have landed”, some of them will have probably landed in the middle of nowhere and the Israelis will have just let them go.’
The stationing of the THAAD system and 100 troops in Israel by the US is the latest step in a considerable ramping up of Western military presence in the Middle East that aims to deter the Islamic Republic and its proxy forces while reassuring Tel Aviv that it will be supported by its allies in the event of all-out war.
Even before Hamas launched its ruthless attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, Western powers were already well positioned in the region.
The US military had more than 30,000 troops stationed at various bases in a dozen countries, including some 13,000 in Qatar, 7,000 in Bahrain, at least 3,000 each in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait, 2,500 in Iraq, and about 2,500 in Turkey – not to mention a handful of soldiers in Syria.
Another 2,000 US Marines with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit had also just arrived in Kuwait for an exercise when Hamas and Palestinian militants stormed across the border.
Beyond the sheer manpower, the US Navy maintained a constant presence with ships deployed throughout the region’s waters, many of which were tasked with protecting defenceless merchant shipping vessels in the Red Sea once Yemen’s Houthi rebels began launching strikes.
They were also tasked with helping Israel to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones fired by Iran in April, before intervening again on October 1 amid Tehran’s latest barrage.
But within weeks of Hamas attacks and Israel’s retaliatory strikes in Gaza, Washington assigned another 10,000 troops to the Middle East, including a rapid response force comprised of 2,000 Army and Air Force personnel.
Two aircraft carriers, including the world’s largest – the USS Gerald R. Ford – were sent to the eastern Mediterranean, and the West’s aerial threat was upgraded with a slew of F-15 and F-16 fighter jet squadrons deployed to double the number available in the Persian Gulf.
Amid Israel’s renewed offensive on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s missile barrage of its regional foe earlier this month, the number of Western troops in the region was bumped up yet again.
The US Navy’s Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, headed by the USS Abraham Lincoln, is already operating in the Gulf of Oman.
The aircraft carrier can deploy a total of nine different aircraft squadrons, including three squadrons of F/A-18E Super Hornets, one squadron of F-35C jets, two helicopter strike squadrons and an electronic warfare platform.
It is also supported by the guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay, along with several guided-missile destroyers.
That force is now being reinforced by the Harry Truman Carrier Strike Group, which can deploy another nine aircraft squadrons supported by guided-missile destroyers USS Jason Dunham and USS Stout, along with the guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg.
Besides the expanded naval presence, military chiefs assigned to the region another three air squadrons comprising dozens of aircraft including fearsome F-22 raptor fighter jets, additional F-15 and F-16 platforms and A-10 warthogs.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in a call with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant earlier in October, said the US ‘supports Israel’s right to defend itself.’
‘We agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities,’ he wrote on X.
Austin said: ‘Should Iran, its partners or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every necessary measure to defend our people.’
Israel’s Iron Dome system is running out of ammunition and a joint Hezbollah/Iran missile strike could overwhelm defences – as US warns it can’t keep supplying IDF AND Ukraine | Avi Melamed’s insights quoted in this article by By David Averre, Originally published in The Daily Mail.
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