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48 Hours into the War with Iran: Tehran’s Proxies Still on the Sidelines | #AiTME Ep24. An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
On the second day of the war with Iran, it is striking that Iran’s principal operational arms—Lebanese Hezbollah, pro-Iranian Iraqi militias, and Ansar Allah (the military force of the Houthis)—have so far refrained from military intervention. Instead, they have limited themselves to issuing general statements characterized by evasive wording, expressing solidarity with Iran and calling for public protests the war. This policy has continued even after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. For example, Hezbollah declared that the organization would “fulfill its duty in resisting aggression,” a formulation that leaves considerable room for interpretation.
Their position so far has been somewhat puzzling. The Iranian regime has invested tens of billions of dollars in building the military and political power of these organizations. Tehran does not invest in such resources without expectations. One of the regime’s key objectives has been to deter attacks against Iran through the threat posed by these proxies. The current war demonstrates that this deterrence has failed. As Iran comes under massive military attack, one might have expected these groups to open additional fronts: Hezbollah attacking Israel from Lebanon; pro-Iranian Iraqi militias targeting Israel and Gulf Arab monarchies; and the Houthis attacking Israel and disrupting maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Yet for now—48 hours after the outbreak of war and despite the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader—these organizations remain on the fence.
One possible explanation is that political and operational considerations are restraining them. Hezbollah in Lebanon is battered after its war with Israel, and continued Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure are further weakening the organization. At the same time, Hezbollah faces intense domestic criticism and strong pressure from many Lebanese not to drag Lebanon into another devastating war.
Pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq hold significant representation within Iraq’s political system, including the government itself. This political integration requires them to coordinate with a government that is highly attentive to U.S. interests. In addition, many Iraqi Shiites—the country’s largest population group—strongly oppose Iranian interference and influence in Iraq.
The Houthis, despite their close ties to Iran, pursue an independent policy shaped by internal considerations, even when these do not fully align with Iranian interests. Their May 2025 agreement with the United States to end hostilities removed a major military threat to key Houthi strategic assets, especially the port of al-Hudaydah. The substantial U.S. military presence in the region could quickly be turned against the Houthis if they resume attacks on Red Sea shipping or against Gulf states.
Another possible explanation is that the current posture of these organizations is coordinated with Iran. At this stage—roughly 48 hours into the war—the Iranian regime may not yet perceive an immediate threat to its survival and therefore prefers not to risk its proxy network prematurely.
However, if the war continues and Iran’s core centers of power sustain further damage, the likelihood of military intervention by Tehran’s proxies—some or all of them—will increase.
This article is also available as a Podcast: the AiTME Podcast. This Podcast was written and created by Avi Melamed, Middle East Intelligence Analyst and Founder of Inside The Middle East [ITME], an institute dedicated to apolitical, non-partisan education about the Middle East.
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48 Hours into the War with Iran: Tehran’s Proxies Still on the Sidelines | #AiTME Ep24. An article by Avi Melamed | Podcast version powered by Ai.
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